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Posts Tagged ‘World Bank’

WikiLeaks: The Diversion of A Decade?

In Financial Markets, Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, Law & Regulations, National Economic Politics, Natural science, Philosophy, Technology, Views, commentaries and opinions on 06.12.10 at 20:54

There’s a lot serious stuff going on in the world at the moment. But somehow the center of attention is a young man who has managed to piss of some politicians and generals by publishing documents that proves what most people already know – or at least suspected. The WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is now subject to the most intense manhunt by international authorities since Osama bin-Laden for having sex without a condom. The fact that a stack of reports have been issued, warning about further deterioration of the global economy, currency wars, political instability and exploding social unrest, seems to be mostly overlooked. Am I the only one to  think it’s a little peculiar?

“The WikiLeaks saga is trying its best to offer distraction, but the crisis in the euro zone remains impossible to ignore.”

Robin Bew


It’s been a strange, almost surreal, weekend. Personally I’ve been fighting off a couple of attempts to hack into my computer system, and never in the 15 years I’ve been online have I ran into so many error messages when trying to load pages on the internet. What makes it even more strange is that the WikiLeaks frenzy is happening at the same time as EU and NATO is conducting its first ever cyber war exercise, the US launch a massive operation to seize close to hundred file-sharing web sites and thousands of hackers all over the world gathered at an event organized by Google, Microsoft, NASA and the World Bank.

And all this have been planned long time ahead. The latest release of documents from WikiLeaks was also notified months in advance.

So was the scheduled release of several economic forecasts for 2011 last week. However, these have more or less been drowned in the avalanche of more or less (un)important Wiki-stories filling up both mainstream and alternative medias.

So, I think it’s time to get the focus back where it belongs; on the developments of our global economy, as the Eurogroup meet for another crisis meeting this Monday and Bloomberg reports that the euro’s worst is yet to come.

“The WikiLeaks saga is trying its best to offer distraction, but the crisis in the euro zone remains impossible to ignore. With fears of contagion increasing, our ViewsWire service examines scenarios under which countries might exit the single currency,” chief economist Robin Bew at The Economist Intelligence Unit writes in an email to subscribers. Adding: “We think the euro will ultimately survive, but significant political and economic hurdles will have to be overcome, with Portugal now likely to follow Ireland and Greece in requesting emergency EU/IMF funding.”

Last week EIU released a bunch of reports, based on separate analysis on each topic.

You have to look very hard to find something positive to hold on to. In fact, I can’t remember having read anything like this from The Economist in a very long time.

This is the headlines:

The EIU label the three first predictions with “High Probability,”  the next three as “Moderate Probability” and the two last are seen as “Low Probability”.

As I’ve been pointing out since the financial crisis became visible to most people, we are in fact dealing with a three-part crisis; the financial, the environmental and the social.

There three problems are connected, they interact with each other, feeds on each other, making each other stronger – and it’s impossible to solve one without solving the others.

Robin Bew writes:

“The UN climate summit under way in Cancún, Mexico is highly unlikely to produce a global accord on emissions cuts, though modest gains, such as on forest protection, remain possible.”

Well, the possibility of rescuing a few trees is not gonna make much difference.

As for the social (poverty) crisis, Economist Intelligence Unit concludes:

“The risk is that instability becomes systemic, with political crises in certain countries affecting others through contagion or through the actions of populist new regimes seeking to assert themselves. Potential widespread disruption poses a considerable downside risk to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s global economic forecasts.”

That’s right. Sovereign debt problems isn’t the only thing that is contagious.

The Economist Intelligence Unit‘s baseline global forecast assumes some increase in social and political unrest, but with serious fallout largely avoided. If economic circumstances were to worsen again, however, there is a danger though that incidents of unrest turn into far more intense and long-lasting events: armed rebellions, military coups, civil conflicts and perhaps even wars between states. In such circumstances, a repetition of the pressures that transformed global politics in the 1930s, though a far-removed worst-case scenario, could not be dismissed.”

In other words: If the economy gets worse, we may face a World War II scenario.

Now, take a look at the top three scenarios again…

First: Sovereign debt

“There are considerable concerns about the sustainability of public debt positions in a number of countries. Heavily indebted sovereigns – including developed economies, notably in the euro zone – could struggle to raise private financing even at higher interest rates, and some could default.”

“The US and the UK also face drastically increased fiscal deficits. They could moderate their debt burdens through inflation and devaluation but this risks undermining their bond markets, and the resultant spike in bond yields could force an acceleration of fiscal tightening, with highly negative implications for economic recovery.”

“Emerging-market defaults would create some ructions more widely, but as developed-country sovereign bonds have traditionally been considered risk-free, developed-country defaults in particular would wreak havoc on investor psychology. Banks would face write-downs on their government debt portfolios, and financial-sector guarantees by governments that default would be exposed as worthless.”

(Forecast: High probability, high impact, risk level 16)

Second: New Asset Bubble

“A flood of cheap money from stimulus measures, in particular carry trades drawing on record-low interest rates in the US, prompted a strong rally in a range of assets in the second half of 2009 and in 2010, particularly emerging-market stocks and bonds, but also in risky asset classes such as equities, high-yield bonds and commodities more broadly.”

“New bubbles could continue to grow for a considerable period of time, potentially several years, during which they will help to boost growth in the economies concerned. But they would burst suddenly, and still-fragile risk appetite could be a factor in this – a decline in risk tolerance could see investors pull their money out of emerging-market assets. Indeed, the rally in asset markets has been subject to periodic reversals in 2010 as concerns about the outlook for the global economy have re-emerged.”

“New asset bubbles may be vulnerable to painful corrections as central banks in emerging markets tighten monetary policy, fiscal stimulus is withdrawn, and the weak foundations of recovery become apparent. The resultant dislocations, including a shock to banks and a renewed rise in risk aversion, would reinforce and deepen a new economic slowdown.”

(Forecast: High probability, high impact, risk level 16)

Third: Currency Manipulation

“Tensions are rising over attempts by some countries to weaken their currencies, and the US and China remain at odds over the value of the renminbi. A global “currency war” would raise the danger of protectionist responses.”

“Tensions over exchange-rates have risen in recent months. The US Congress has been holding hearings on China’s exchange-rate policy, with a view to potential legislation to punish China for what the US regards as a mercantilist strategy of keeping the renminbi artificially low. A growing cohort of other countries are also worried about the strength of their currencies, including Brazil, Switzerland, Japan and South Korea. Market interventions by policymakers in some countries to weaken their currencies prompted Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, to warn of an “international currency war”.”

“Given the closely integrated nature of the global economy, governments will find it difficult to close off many aspects of trade, even if they want to. But trade disputes are likely to increase as populist policies clash with countries’ international obligations.”

(Forecast: High probability, high impact, risk level 16)

All eight summaries are uploaded on Scribd.

By the way – here’s the latest WikiLeaks stories:

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange arrested in UK (BBC)

Feds block workers from WikiLeaks (CNET.com)

MasterCard pulls plug on WikiLeaks payments (CNET.com)

Swiss Bank Closes WikiLeaks Founder’s Bank Accounts (RadioFreeEurope)

WikiLeaks‘ Swedish servers come under attack again (The Herald Tribue)

Barack Omama Is More Dangerous Than WikiLeaks (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research)

WikiLeaks Releases List of “Vital” US Facilities (Slate.com)

Google refuses to disclose whether they’d allow users to repost Wikileaks‘ State Department cables (The Atlantic)

Related by The Swapper:

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A Hompage For The Homeless

In Financial Engeneering, Health and Environment, High Frequency Trading, International Econnomic Politics, Law & Regulations, Learning, Natural science, Philosophy, Technology, Views, commentaries and opinions on 27.11.10 at 03:46

You’re hereby warned: over the next weekend will thousands of hackers gather in cities around the globe to test out their latest tools and perhaps come up with some new ones. They are invited by Google, Microsoft, NASA, Yahoo! and The World Bank.

“It is an opportunity to meet and work with top software developers and disaster experts, to create and improve open source applications that enable communities to recover from disasters.”

Google Code Blog

My New Desktop

What! I had to read it twice. It turns out the three rulers of the internet, together with NASA and The World Bank, is inviting software developers, private hackers and students to participate in an event called “Random Hacks of Kindness,” (RHoK) to create some kind of disaster recovery application.

If you too have trouble believing your own eyes, here’s the link to the blog post at Google Code Blog.

Come Hack for Humanity! the Google-guy writes.

And leaves me with more questions than a European Stability Mechanism.

First: What disaster is he talking about?

In fact, according to the blog post, this is the third time, these four institutions invite hackers to this kind of event. The first one took place in November last year and the second in June this summer.

Google Code Blog writes:

“RHoK brings together volunteer programmers and experts in disaster response for a two-day hackathon to create software solutions that focus on problems related to disaster risk and response. It is an opportunity to meet and work with top software developers and disaster experts, to create and improve open source applications that enable communities to recover from disasters, and to possibly win prizes.”

The winner in 2009 was a mobile phone application that enables you to send out a “broad” message (email, SMS, Facebook, etc.) to as many people as you want, by just pressing one single button.

Earlier this year the friendly hacker prize was awarded a prediction model (algorithm), that outputs visualization, interpretation and identification of landslide risk reduction measures.

Well, that’s all mighty fine. But still; why just disaster applications?

And why do Microsoft, Google – and NASA (!) – need to call on amateurs and private hackers? Isn’t these companies supposed to have some of the best computer experts available in this part of the world on their payrolls?

Will All The Chinese Raise Their Hands, Please?

RHOK will be held simultaneously in many locations around the world on December 4 and 5.

The five main stages will be in Chicago, Sao Paolo, Aarhus, Nairobi and Bangalore; and there will be over a dozen satellite events in other global cities.

The satellite connections will be set up here:

New York, New York, U.S.A
Lusaka, Zambia
Berlin, Germany
Toronto, Canada
Bogota, Colombia
Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A.
Jakarta, Indonesia
Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Birmingham, U.K.
Singapore
Tel Aviv, Israel (Dec. 3rd/4th)
Mexico City, Mexico
San Francisco, California, U.S.A.
Juarez, Mexico
Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.A. (Dec. 5 only)

(More info about the “Random Hacks of Kindness” here)

I also wonder who really turns up at these events. I strongly doubt that the most creative, sophisticated and competent private hackers will register, sign in and log on to this special purpose system just for the sake of humanity.

You’ve probably noticed that besides Indonesia and Singapore, there is no Asian participation.

Hack - The definition

I could go on asking stupid questions for a page or three more, but I probably wouldn’t get any answers anyway.

However, an old saying from back in the 60’s comes to mind:

“Fighting for freedom is like fucking for virginity”

In this case I think the following re-write is suitable:

“Hacks for humanity is like a homepage for the homeless”

.

Estonia: Banks Lost USD 23 million in Q1

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics on 26.04.10 at 21:54

The Estonian banking sector lost, who is controlled 90% by the largest Scandinavian banks, lost an amount of roughly USD 23 million in the first quarter of 2010, according to the Estonian Central Bank. Moody’s says risk remains in the Baltic area and the World Bank warns against a slow recovery in Eastern Europa.

“There is a risk that the Baltic economies will remain weak for a prolonged period of time, with their banking systems remaining under pressure.”

Moody’s Investor Service

The Estonian banking sector ended the first quarter with a loss of 272 million kroons, about 23 million USD, according to the Estonian Central Bank. The largest Scandinavian banks, Swedbank, SEB, Nordea and Danske Bank control more than 90 percent of the Estonian banking market.

However, at the same time the losses was the lowest in more than a year as financing costs fell and bad-loan growth stabilized, balticbusinessnews.com reports.

The last time that the banking industry made a profit was in the fourth quarter of 2008. In the fourth quarter 2008 the banks lost a total of 4.7 billion kroons.

Swedbank, SEB, Nordea and Danske Bank control more than 90 percent of the Estonian banking market.

New provisions for bad loans totaled 1.3 billion kroons, about half of the average volume in the previous two quarters, the central bank says.

The volume of loans overdue for more than 60 days rose to 6.7 percent of all credits issued in March from 6.6 percent the previous month due to a 1.1 percent decline in overall credit volumes.

Loan demand remained “moderate” in March, mainly in property-related businesses.

Outlook Still Negative

Moody’s Investors Service says it will keep its negative outlook for banks in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania at least this year as the recovery of the Baltic economies remains weak,  Bloomberg reports.

Estonia is likely to be the first to see its banking system outlook changed to stable, followed by Lithuania and then Latvia due to “increasingly differentiated” economic developments among the three Baltic countries, the credit evaluator said in a report on emerging European Banks today.

“The economic outlook of the Baltic countries is still not strong enough to indicate a reversal of outlook to their banking systems,” Moody’s says.

“There is a risk that the Baltic economies will remain weak for a prolonged period of time, with their banking systems remaining under pressure.”

The former Soviet Baltic republics had the deepest recession in the European Union in the past two years after debt-fueled property bubbles collapsed and the global financial crisis hit export demand.

The level of problem loans for banks, led by Stockholm-based Swedbank AB, SEB AB and Nordea AB, will continue to grow in the coming quarters, according to Moody’s.

Economic growth is forecast to be “muted” in 2010 in Estonia and Lithuania where recession has “probably” ended, while Latvia is forecast to remain in recession at least until the middle of 2010, Moody’s says.

“We expect loan losses to peak only later in the year, as asset quality indicators should start to stabilize with a certain time lag after these countries reach the bottom of their respective economic downturn.”

Slow Recovery Ahead

Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region will face a slow recovery from the global economic crisis in the year ahead and countries facing tight fiscal pressures should take care to target social spending on the most needy and vulnerable, the World Bank said April 23 at a press briefing.

“Countries in this region were hit the hardest by the global economic crisis and are likely to be the slowest to resume economic growth,” Philippe Le Houérou, World Bank Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia Region said.

“Growth in the Region, which had peaked at about 7 percent in 2007, fell to a negative 6 percent in 2009. 2010 is going to be a tough year for the Region with growth projected at around 3 percent. The prospects for 2011-2013 are only slightly better. Rising joblessness is pushing households into poverty and making things even harder for those already poor.”

Emerging Europe and Central Asia is a diverse region. Differentiation among countries resulted in varying degrees of impact that the crisis has had on individual countries and will also define their prospects for recovery. 20 out of 30 countries in the Region experienced a decline in GDP in 2009, with GDP growth ranging from a negative 18 percent in Latvia to a positive 9.3 percent in Azerbaijan.

“Overall, countries in the Emerging Europe and Central Asia Region will recover from the crisis more slowly than in other regions. According to the World Bank , current growth projections for 2011-2013 show the region growing between 3 and 4 percent, as compared to approximately 5 percent in the Middle East and about 8 percent in developing Asia. 2010 is expected to be particularly difficult for Europe and Central Asia, with GDP growth forecasts about half of the forecast for the rest of the developing world,” the World Bank  reported.

Related by the Econotwist:

Morgan Stanley To Buy Bad Baltic Loans?

Swedbank Leaves The State Guarantee Program

Estonia: Something Doesn’t Seem Right

Latvia To Split And Sell Nations Leading Bank

DnB NOR Net Profit Reduced By 33%

The Nordic Superbank Dream

An Estonian Mystery

Standard and Poor’s: The Baltic Are Stabilizing

Swedbank Buy Greek Bonds With Estonian Money

Baltic Countries Remain In Recession

How To Make A Rat Look Like A Puppy

Swedbank In Estonia: “Daylight Robbery”

Nordic Central Banks Agree On Baltic Bank Bailout

How Sweden sent Estonian economy into free fall

East European banks needs $304bn

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Central Bank Of Norway Call For A New "Global Order"

In Financial Markets, Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 25.02.10 at 20:32

Governor of Central Bank of Norway, Svein Gjedrem, purpose to merge the activities of G20 and IMF in creating a new financial architecture. In a speech held at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, Thursday,  Mr Gjedrem said that a “statutory-based and representative global order” should be one of the main objectives of the discussions on changes in the international financial markets.

“The IMF has played a pivotal role in presenting the initial lessons from the crisis, in providing finance to countries with temporary balance of payments needs. When the good times return, we must avoid memory failure and remember these facts of life.”

Svein Gjedrem

Photo: Nancy Bundt/Norges Bank

A Multilateral approach is needed to deal with the global challenges. That was the main message from governor Svein Gjedrem of Central Bank of Norway in his speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, Thursday. He draws a picture of a new global financial world with the International Monetary Fund, IMF, in the center.

“At the end of the Second World War, 45 countries agreed to establish a new international financial and economic order with the Bretton Woods Institutions, the IMF and the World Bank, at its center. In his inaugural speech to the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, US Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau noted the following:”

“We know that economic conflict must develop when nations endeavor separately to deal with economic ills which are international in scope. To deal with the problems of international exchange and of international investment is beyond the capacity of any one country, or of any two or three countries. These are multilateral problems, to be solved only by multilateral cooperation. They are fixed and permanent problems, not merely transitional considerations of the post-war reconstruction. They are problems not limited in importance to foreign exchange traders and bankers but are vital factors in the flow of raw materials and finished goods, in the maintenance of high levels of production and consumption, in the establishment of a satisfactory standard of living for all the people of all the countries on this earth.”

“It is perhaps time to honor some fundamental principles,” Mr Gjedrem said in his speech at the Peterson Institute.

The governor of the Central Bank of Norway did stretch as far as to paint a picture of how he thinks a new global financial world should look like.

Mr. Gjedrem’s new world would revolve around the IMF.

“During the crisis, the IMF proved its ability to respond promptly and effectively to very challenging developments.”

“I therefore submit that a statutory-based and representative global order should be one of the main objectives of the discussions on changes in the international financial architecture.”

“I have presented my view on the prevailing international economic order which I find deficient in important respects. The G20 played a vital role in the response to the global crisis and the rest of the world depends on its successful cooperation. With the world recovering from crisis, the G20 should merge its activities with those of the IMF. That will give them both wider acceptance and legitimacy.”

“I’ve described some characteristics of Norway and emphasised our history of active support of multilateral institutions and collaboration. Currently, we do not participate where decisive discussions take place on international economic and financial issues and cooperation, including changes in the governance of the IMF. Yet we are called upon to make relatively large contributions to efforts agreed by a non-statutory body.”

Svein Gjedrem emphasize certain key principles:

  • First, systemically important countries need to collaborate effectively on consistent economic policies. Their success is vital not only for their own good, but also for that of others, including small open economies.
  • Second, this collaboration should be anchored in a multilateral and statutory-based system of representation, for example through constituencies, where smaller countries would participate, even if indirectly.
  • Third, the constituencies should have rotating representation, where small countries, at least periodically, could participate directly.

“Without such a global order, the interest in contributing to international efforts is certain to diminish. There can be no taxation without representation.”

“The IMF has played a pivotal role in presenting the initial lessons from the crisis, in providing finance to countries with temporary balance of payments needs, and in preparing the overall framework for the international policy response.”

“When the good times return, we must avoid memory failure and remember these facts of life.”

Here’s a full transcript of the speech.

Related by the Econotwist:

Evaluation Of Norwegian Monetary Policy

Final Words Of A Central Banker

Nordic Central Banks Agree On Baltic Bank Bailout

Norway: Key Policy Rate Remains Unchanged

Fear Of Norwegian Housing Market Collapse

Central Bank of Norway raise interest rate again

C.B.of Norway: “All Banks Must Be Allowed To Fail”

Norway: Most Banks Fail In Stresstest

Reason To Worry

Norges Bank urges banks to reduce liquidity risks

Norway’s New Bubble

“The Norwegian Syndrome”

Central Bank of Norway: “Transparency Is Difficult”

Not So Rosy After All

The Art of Interest

Central Bank of Norway Reverse Easing

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”The Master of Money”

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 10.10.09 at 12:57

 

Gerald Celente1

 

 

 

gullkrone_engelsk2

 

 Prisen på gull har på kort tid nådd sitt høyeste punkt noensinne , samtidig har vedien av amerikanske dollar har falt kraftig. 

Selv om valutakurser og gullpris ikke har noen direkte sammenheng lenger, sies det at den som kontrollerer gullet, kontrollerer pengene.

 

Prisen på gull har denne uken nådd sitt høyeste nivå noensinne på rundt 1060 dollar per unse.

Gullprisen er et av de eldste barometrene på sikkerhet og stabiliteten i verden.

gullprisen_historisk

 

 

 

 Den har steget jevnt og trutt siden årtusenskiftet, men har fått ekstra fart i det siste etter at dollarkursen har inntatt en nærmest fritt-fallposisjon.

Det er ikke uvanlig at prisen på råvarer som prises i dollar, både olje, metaller og landbruksprodukter,  svinger i takt med dollarkursen.

 

 

Men mye tyder på at andre forhold også spiller inn.

John B. Robinson 2 

Høyt blodtrykk og panikkangst

 

Ifølge analytikerne flytter forvalterne verdier i dollar og dollarrelaterte verdipapirer over i gullmarkedet hver gang dollaren svekkes. Det er et slags sikkerhetstiltak.

greenspan1

Ukens dramatiske dollarfall ble utløst av en artikkel i avisen The Independent om at flere land planlegger å løsrive oljeprisen fra dollarkursen.

Men et slikt scenarioet nærmest utenkelig i overskuelig fremtid fordi konsekvensene vil bli for store og kostbare, og gjennomføringen for komplisert.

Investorene synes å reagere som en gjeng hysteriske småsparere med høyt blodtrykk og panikkangst.

John B. Robinson

Men markedene styres i dag hovedsaklig av datamaskiner – også kalt ”robottradere” – som kan utføre millioner av transaksjoner på brøkdelen av et sekund.  Storbanker og hedgefond bruker i tillegg kompliserte dataprogrammer som i hovedsak handler opsjoner og andre derivater på bakgrunn av avanserte matematiske formler.

Handlen foregår kontinuerlig, og sørger for at pengene til en hver tid flyter dit hvor de kaster mest av seg.

Dessuten er det alltid en andel rene spekulanter; investorer som vanligvis ikke er i gullmarkedet, men som kaster seg på bølgen etter hvert som nyhetsoverskriftene blir større.

Det er slikt det blir rally av.Christopher Columbus

 

”The Masters of Gold”

De store bevegelsene i gull og dollar har gitt nytt liv til gamle konspirasjonsteorien og at det eksisterer en hemmelig avtale mellom sentralbankene for å kontrollere gullmarkedet.           

Selv om valuta ikke lenger har gullverdien som referanse, har det edle metallet en viktig funksjon i verdensøkonomien.

Ifølge den såkalte ”Exter-modellen” er gull selve grunnlaget i vårt likviditets- og kredittsystem.

John_Exter_model

Nylig fant en forsker en kopi av et tidligere hemmeligstemplet  telegram til det amerikanske innenriksdepartementet i arkivene til den amerikanske sentralbanken.

Det er uklart hvem telegrammet er fra. Det er datert mars 1968, like før opprettelsen av Det Internasjonale Pengefondets elektroniske valuta SDR, (Special Drawing Rights).

”If we want to have a chance to remain the masters of gold an international agreement on the rules of the game as outlined above seems to be a matter of urgency”

Her er en elektronisk kopi av telegrammet (som ført ble publisert på nettstedet www.zerohegde.com),

Sentralbanksjef Arthur Burns skriver i et brev til president Gerald Ford i 1975 der han påpeker at hvis ikke Federal Reserve kan kontrollere gullprisen vil det ”easily frustrate our efforts to control world liqudity”.

Dette brevet er også nylig blitt nedgradert fra “hemmelig”- her er en elektronisk kopi.

Det er ingen hemmelighet at verdens sentralbanker har avtaler om hvor mye av sine gullreserver de kan selge. Det handler om prisstabilitet som er sentralbankenes fremste oppgave.

Men alt hemmeligholdet rundt gullbeholdningene øker grunnlaget for misteksomhet og spekulasjoner.

Denis Kearney

Kalde fakta

Når det gjelder den siste tidens prisstigning har trolig følgende forhold  – foruten dollarsvekkelsen –  betydning.

  • 80 prosent av gullmarkedet er papir. Det vi si; kontrakter om fremtidig levering.

 

 

  • Sentralbankene har fornyet den såkalte Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) der det avtales  at 2 000 tonn gull skal selges i den neste femårsperioden.

 

  • Det Internasjonale Pengefondet, IMF, skal selge 403 tonn gull, cirka 12,5 prosent av sin beholdning for å finansiere krisehjelp til fattige land. Salget startet samtidig som den nye CBGA-avtalen trådte i kraft, 27.september.

 

  • Onsdag meldte The United States Mints at de stanser produksjonen av samlemyntene “American Eagle Gold” og “Silver Bullion Coin” på grunn av unormal stor etterspørsel.

nye gullfunn

 

 

 

Jeffrey SachsPrisskvis

 

Når bare 20 prosent av gullmarkedet består av fysisk gull, er det ikke så rart at gullforhandlere løper til ”butikken” så snart det kommer nye forsyninger.

Hvis de ikke kan levere gullet de allerede har solgt, kan tapene bli enorme.

Det er den samme mekanismen vi ser i aksjemarkedet når shortselgere må kjøpe tilbake aksjer de har lånt for å dekke sine forpliktelser. Etterspørselen øker og kursene spretter i været.

De store svingningene i valuta- og råvaremarkedet under finanskrisen viser svakheten ved dagens pengesystem som baserer seg på tilliten til at de enkelte nasjoner er i stand til å betjene sin gjeld.

Økningen i gullprisen illustrerer en sterkt fallende tillit til dagens pengesystem som består av over 90 prosent såkalte fiat-penger – det vil si; elektroniske, ikke-fysiske, penger, skapt ut av løse luften.

Sextus Propertius

 

 

 Gullstandarden

 

Flere har tatt til orde for å gjenninnføre gullstandarden for å stabilisere valutamarkedet. Men forslaget er så langt blitt blankt avvist av sentralbanker og politiske ledere som mener det er for kostbart og vil føre til økt spekulasjon. 

Professor Lawrence White ved University of Missouri–St. Louis la i fjor frem en forskningsrapport som viser at et pengesystem knyttet til gullverdien over tid er mer stabilt enn dagens fiat-system.

Han understreker at ingen av de to systemene er perfekte, men når det gjelder å begrense veksten i pengemengden (som er mye av årsaken til finanskrisen) vil gjeninnføring av gullstandarden være et effektivt virkemiddel.

Ifølge historieprofessoren vil USA være det eneste landet som vil tape på å innføre gullstandarden igjen.  

greenspan2

 

  

 Symbolisme

 

Uansett hvilke økonomiske terorier man slår i bordet med, vil gull alltid hatt en unik status blant oss mennesker.

I mange tusen år har det vært akseptert som betalingsmiddel. Metallets renhet, kvaltitetskontroll og håndfaste måling i karat, gjørt at gull er et sterkt symbol på sannhet, frihet og trygghet.

Ralph Waldo Emerson 2

 

Dette er trolig enda en menneskelig faktor som økonomer har undervurdert.

Dagens økonomiske krisen handler om tillit – før tilliten til finanssystemet er gjennopprettet vil vi ikke komme ut av problemene.

Det er neppe noen som kan kalle seg ”Masters of Gold” i dagens datastyrte, kompliserte marked, men gull i seg selv fremstår igjen som ”The Master of Money”.

John L. Motley