Posts Tagged ‘George W. Bush’

Investors Beware: Crucial Week Coming Up

In Financial Markets, Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, Law & Regulations, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 30.10.10 at 23:19

The coming week will be a kind of make-or-break for the global financial markets. Not only do we have a Congressional election in the US, we’ve also got the FOMC‘s decision on further quantitative easing coming up. In addition, the European sovereign debt problem has taken a turn for the worst, with the difference in CDS spreads hitting a record high on Friday.

“The next few days will have a crucial importance on both politics and economics.”

Gavan Nolan

The revival of political risks in Greece, Portugal and Ireland, and the growing potential of an Anglo Irish Bank debt exchange, caused the sovereign CDS spreads to widen further. The basis between the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index and Markit iTraxx Europe Index reached 53bp on Friday – the widest on record.

However, according to, the SovX is trading with a considerable skew; “i.e. the theoretical level of the index is trading tighter than the index itself,” credit analyst Gavan Nolan writes in Markit’s weekly credit wrap.

And when comparing the theoretical levels of the two indices the difference is 36bp.

“A high level but nothing exceptional and well below the 47bp reached on May 6,” Gavan Nolan points out.


Formerly Known As “Political Risk”

Politicians have been derided many times for their often shaky knowledge of economics.

Ronald Reagan’s supply-side policies were dismissed as “voodoo economics” by none other than George Bush in the 1980 presidential race.

And when Bill Clinton ran against George W. Bush in 1992, one of his most famous slogans was; “It’s the economy, stupid!

Probably one of the best indications of how deep the knowledge of economic and financial issues  are (in general) amongst our political leaders, sadly.

More recently, the newly appointed UK shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Alan Johnson has faced opprobrium for his supposed ignorance, even half-joking that his first action would be to “pick up a primer of economics for beginners”.

But whatever their levels of competence – and many of them are more than competent – the actions and utterances of
politicians have a direct influence on the economy and asset valuations.

“Events in the euro zone’s periphery over the past few days have made this evident. Political instability in two of the most troubled countries in the currency club has caused a mini-revival of the volatility seen earlier this year,” Gavan Nolan writes in this weeks market wrap.

Greece’s spreads widened sharply this week, reversing some of the strong rally seen over the last two months.

The Prime Minister George Papandreou warned that “we have not yet escaped the danger. I am sounding the alarm”.

As if this wasn’t enough to deter investors, Papandreou threatened to call a general election if his party fail to win decisively in the upcoming local elections.

Then the finance minister George Papaconstantinou weighed in, revealing that the country has “serious tax compliance issues”.

“Those familiar with Greece will regard this as a truism, but if the sovereign is to get its fiscal house in order then it needs to fix this issue quickly,” Nolan points out.

The country’s budget deficit is expected to be upgraded by Eurostat to over 15%, and the sovereign’s spreads are still indicating that a debt restructuring might be the most likely – and least painful – way forward.

“On the other side of the periphery, Portugal – hardly a paragon of fiscal prudence – has its own political problems.” Nolan comments.

Budget talks between the minority Socialist government and the main opposition party, the Social Democrats (PSD), broke down on Wednesday. The latter party is insisting that spending cuts should make a larger contribution to the austerity package.

It is likely that a compromise will be reached before the final vote on the budget next month.

“Nonetheless, the uncertainty created by the deadlock caused spreads to widen and they are set to remain volatile until an agreement is reached,” Nolan notes.

“Political friction in the euro zone will no doubt be relevant to risky asset valuations next week,” the analyst writes.

The Risks of the Week

But any fresh developments are likely to be overshadowed by events across the Atlantic, as Tuesday brings the US mid-term elections.

The polls are predicting that the Democrats will lose control of the House and maybe the Senate.

“As investors digest the implications of possible political gridlock they will be hit by the FOMC decision the following day,” Gavan Nolan adds.

The markets have been pricing in additional QE for some time now, and are expecting a confirmation on Wednesday.

The big question is how big – and how gradual – the liquidity injection will be.

“Prior to both events are the ISM and Markit Manufacturing PMIs on Monday (services on Wednesday) and then the week ends with non-farm payrolls on Friday,” informs.

“The next few days will have a crucial importance on both politics and economics,” Gavan Nolan concludes.

Related by The Swapper:

Credits: PIGs Gone Wild

Marc Faber Expects Market Sell Off On QE2 Announcement

Chart Of The Day: Europe’s Web Of Debt

The Fight Against Currency War

Fitch Place Most US Banks On Negative Rating Watch


Israel, USA Plans To Attack Within Next 3 Months, Iranian President Says

In Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 30.07.10 at 22:43

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says the United States and Israel plan to attack two countries in the Middle East as part of a conspiracy to apply pressure on Iran. This exclusive interview with Mr. Ahmadinejad, done by Press TV, is an absolute “Must See.”

“They plan to attack at least two countries in the region within the next three months.”

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

“We have precise information that the Americans have devised a plot, according to which they seek to launch a psychological war on Iran,” Ahmadinejad stated in an exclusive interview with Press TV, Monday. “They plan to attack at least two countries in the region within the next three months,” he added.

He said the US seeks to achieve two main objectives with the scheme.

“First of all, they want to hamper Iran’s progress and development since they are opposed to our growth, and secondly they want to save the Zionist regime because it has reached a dead-end and the Zionists believe they can be saved through a military confrontation,” Ahmadinejad explained.

He also advised US President Barack Obama not to follow the policies of George W. Bush.

In addition, he warned Russian officials to avoid playing into the hands of Washington because that would go against their national interests.

US Expansion Of War In Middle East Imminent

Commenting on the nuclear issue, Ahmadinejad said Iran will resume nuclear talks with the West in September, adding that Iran wants Turkey and Brazil to participate in the negotiation.

Related by the Econotwist:

Is World War III Approaching?

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Experts: Afgahn War Is “Unwinnable”

EU Officials Fears Second Depression And War

“We Stand At The Brink Of The Next Great Crisis”

“The Economics Of War Unfolding Now”

Germany In Favour Of Creating European Army

Wars Filling Norwegian Order Books

EU: Trading Bailouts For Weapons

Mr. Rubin's Still Rockin' The House

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 30.06.10 at 00:04

It may come as a surprise to some that, despite the fiasco at Citigroup and his role in causing the subprime mess, former Goldman Sachs CEO Robert Rubin remains inside the circle at the White House. Nearly two decades after first migrating to Washington, he apparently is still calling the shots of U.S. financial and economic policy with the full support of President Barack Obama.

“Operating through trained surrogates such as Geithner, Summers and others, Robert Rubin is still pulling the economic and financial strings in Washington.”

Hans-Joachim Dübel

“Most recently Mr. Rubin managed the defense of Wall Street following the great crisis. No matter what Treasury Secretary Geithner says, or when he says it in public, you can be sure that those utterances have the full knowledge and approval of his handler Larry Summers and their common political owner and sponsor, Robert Rubin,” the founder of Finpolconsult, Hans-Joachim Dübel, writes.

Hans-Joacim (Achim) Dübel describes the famous former Goldman Sachs CEO, Robert Rubin, as a modern day colossus, who “effortlessly bestrides the worlds of political and finance, and mostly without leaving a trail of slime that often betrays the average political operator.”


Rubin stood at the right hand of Alan Greenspan on the famous February 1999 Time cover entitled: “The Committee to Save the World.”

He’s not an entrepreneur like Pierpont Morgan; Rubin is a mixture of banker, politician and global technocrat, a super fixer of sorts, but with a proper sense for public-private partnership.

Case in point: The famous letter from Rubin to Goldman Sachs clients when he first went to the Clinton White House saying that just because he was in Washington didn’t mean he wouldn’t be looking after them.


Here’s Mr. Dübel’s commentary:

Mr. Rubin Goes To Washington

President Bill Clinton famously called Rubin the “greatest Secretary of the Treasury since Alexander Hamilton,” yet another example of the former President’s generosity.

There’s probably a couple of dozen names on the list of the less than 100 Treasury chiefs who’ve served since the inception of the U.S. we’d put in front of Rubin. How about Albert Gallatin, Salmon Chase, Carter Glass, William McAdoo, Andrew Mellon and Henry Morgenthau to start?

In fact, reasonable people might call Robert Rubin the chief architect of the financial crisis and also of Wall Street’s grand strategy to minimize the political damage from the subprime crisis.

From his mismanagement of the U.S. Treasury’s dollar policy in the mid-1990s to his bailout for Mexico (for Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street dealers), to the rescue of Citigroup and AIG in 2008, Rubin has met or exceeded the most demanding expectations for duplicity from our public servants.

Recall the comment by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan about “cringing” when Rubin spoke about the need for a strong dollar and you get the idea. Yves Smith has a great summary of this period of Rubin’s career in her book Econned, BTW, in the last Rubin hit in the index.

Emboldened by the cash surpluses from Social Security contributions pouring into the Treasury and the related silly talk about the US redeeming all outstanding public debt, in the 1990s Rubin transformed himself into a deficit hawk. And using the considerable network of connections and money that is the chief asset of Goldman Sachs, Rubin became part of the permanent government that still runs Washington today.

Rubin worked first at the White House as economic policy boss, then after the abortive 1994 election sweep by the Republicans, at the Treasury.

He oversaw the bailout of Mexico in December 1994, thereby bailing out Goldman Sachs and the other banks which held Mexican exposure.

Then was forged the core gang of Rubin, Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner which comprises the Rubin political tendency today. Summers was the chief minion in those days and ran political interference for Wall Street after Rubin’s departure in 1999.

Lesser minions of Rubin today in the Obama White House include Jason Furman, a deputy to Summers on the National Economic Council and likely candidate to be the next head of the Office of Management and Budget. He would replace yet another Rubin protege, Peter R. Orszag.

Larry Summers - Timothy Geithner

Larry Summers - Timothy Geithner

Through eight years of George W. Bush and two decidedly non-Wall Street Treasury chiefs in Paul O’Neill and John Snow, the Rubin machine worked opportunities on Wall Street and groomed its new front-man, Timothy Geithner.

Geithner served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs from 1998 to 2001 under Secretaries Rubin and Summers, where he was “a principal adviser and member of the executive branch’s senior team.”

Geithner then spent a couple of years at the IMF gaining credibility (and dodging his personal income taxes) before being made President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in October of 2003.

Geithner was chosen for the key Fed job by that subset of the Council on Foreign Relations which seemingly controls the Fed of New York board, a fact that the latest financial reform legislation leaves undisturbed.

The selection of Geithner was made by a search committee headed by Pete Peterson, senior chairman and co-founder of The Blackstone Group, who fortunately did not need to look far. Rubin, Summers and Fred Bergsten all reportedly “advised” Peterson on the selection of Geithner, according to the FRBNY.

Geithner has been effectively an operating asset of Rubin for the past two decades and especially after the former Treasury Secretary left Washington in 1999 to join the board at Citigroup.

As we reported prior to Geithner’s nomination as Treasury Secretary, during his tenure at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Geithner would often speak to Robert Rubin on the telephone for hours at a time, a practice we are told by a reliable source inside continues even to this day.

What are they talking about?

The Citigroup Bailout

During the period when Secretary Geithner headed the Fed of New York, Rubin was on the board of Citigroup, a bank that would eventually be rescued at great cost to the taxpayer and C shareholders.

Robert Rubin

Robert Rubin

But what is frequently missed is that Rubin and the board knew or should have known about operational problems at Citigroup as early as 2003.

Not even two years after Rubin arrived on the board of Citigroup as a senior adviser to Chairman Sanford Weill, the largest subprime lender in the U.S. almost cratered.

During the 2001-2003 mini recession, Citigroup’s credit loss experience skewed almost a standard deviation higher than the large bank per group and stayed there until the end of 2005. As it turns out, this large loss event in terms of the bank’s credit experience was a hint of things to come.

That is, Rubin and the Citigroup board should have known in 2002 onward that there was a problem at the bank. But Rubin seemingly was too busy with other matters to know or to care. Users of the professional version of The IRA Bank Monitor may view the default series for C’s subsidiary banks by clicking here. The chart illustrates that for Citigroup, the subprime crisis began in 2002.

But where was Bob Rubin?

From 2003 through 2007, Rubin encouraged Citigroup to increase leverage and risk during the subprime boom, this while spending a great deal of time pursuing an agenda of global diplomacy that was largely unrelated to the bank’s operations.

Where were the Fed and the OCC while Rubin was AWOL from his role as board chairman? “You were either pulling the levers or asleep at the switch,” Philip N. Angelides told him during hearings on the Citigroup bailout, but Rubin refused to take personal responsibility for what occurred at Citigroup or in the larger economy, according to the New York Times.

Angelides, a former California state treasurer and a fellow Democrat, did not buy Rubin’s excuses. “You were not a garden-variety board member,” Angelides said. “I think to most people chairman of the executive committee of the board of directors implies leadership.

Certainly $15 million a year guaranteed implies leadership and responsibility.” And of course Rubin was and is exercising leadership, just not the kind that is generally understood.

When Citigroup was nearing collapse in 2008, Rubin then orchestrated the bailout of the bank in order to hide the effects of his lack of attention to the bank’s operational problems. During a series of telephone conversations with his former partner and another former Goldman Sachs CEO, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, the Citigroup bailout was agreed.

Rubin’s intervention saved the proverbial bacon for Rubin and the other members of the Citigroup board of directors. But also remember that Paulson’s arrival at the Treasury, in and of itself, was a sign that another financial crisis was brewing on Wall Street.

Rubin remained at Citigroup through January 2009, long enough to see the bank through the most difficult part of the crisis and bailout. He was aided by his dutiful minion Geithner, who was now at Treasury but operating under careful supervision of Summers and Rubin.

Geithner also facilitated the bailout of American International Group, again to the advantage of Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street dealers. Rubin then departed from the board of the badly damaged banking group and ascended into heaven.

Next Crisis: The Dollar

The end result of financial reform is inconvenience for the financial services industry and more expense for the taxpayer and the consumer.

Hans-Joachim Dübel

Hans-Joachim Dübel

But it should be noted that, once again, Wall Street has managed to blunt the worst effects of public anger at the industry’s collective malfeasance. The banks can now start to focus their financial firepower on winning back hearts and minds on Capitol Hill. All it takes is money.

Notwithstanding anything said or done by the Congress this year, operating through trained surrogates such as Geithner, Summers and others, Robert Rubin is still pulling the economic and financial strings in Washington.

The fact that there is a Democrat in the White House almost does not seem to matter. President Obama arguably has a subordinate position to Rubin because of considerations of money.

If you differ, then ask yourself if Barack Obama could seek the presidency in 2012 without the support of Bob Rubin and the folks at Goldman Sachs. Case closed.

For America’s creditors and allies, the key question is whether the Democrats around Rubin are willing to embrace fiscal discipline at a time when deflation in the US is accelerating. That roaring sound you hear is the approaching waterfall of the double dip.

With the US at the moment eschewing anything remotely like fiscal restraint and the rest of the world going in the opposite direction, to us the next crisis probably involves U.S. interest rates and the dollar.

Judging by Rubin’s performance in the past, when he talked first of a strong dollar, then a weak dollar policy, and fudged the issue regarding fiscal deficits, we could be in for quite a ride.

But at some point the Obama Administration should acknowledge that this particular former CEO of Goldman Sachs is still driving the policy bus.

If the Republicans are in control of the Congress come next January, maybe they should subpoena Rubin to appear periodically. At least then we all can hear directly to the person who is actually making national economic policy.

By Hans-Joachim Dübel


FINPOLCONSULT the financial and real estate sector specialist. The company offers independent economic, market and legal-regulatory analysis and advice at the intersection of both sectors – especially in mortgage capital markets, mortgage lending and insurance, and housing policy.nd housing policy.

Original post at the Institutional Risk Analysis.

Related by the Econotwist:

JPMorgan’s “Poison Pill” Strategy

Webster Tarpley: The Financial Reform Is A Failure

Citigroup: Euro Zone No Longer A Single Economy

Goldman Sachs: Good Morning Europe!

6 U.S. Banks Collects 93% Of Industry’s Trading Revenue

Bank Protest Sponsored By Banks

Transantlantic Bailout Buddys Agree To Disagree

Banks Face Multi-Hundred-Million Dollar Settlements

The Truth, Some Truth And Something Like The Truth

Goldman-Boss Questioned By Congress – Watch It LIVE Now

Goldman Sachs Charged With Fraud – Here’s The SEC filing


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Obama To Reset His Political Agenda

In Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 27.01.10 at 16:47

When President Obama appears before Congress and the nation on Wednesday night to deliver his State of the Union speech, his goals will be to reset his agenda, assure his demoralized party that he has not given up on key priorities and try to convince a skeptical public that he can still change Washington.

“We’ll have to look and see what the president’s talking about cutting”

Larry Reid

(Article in English, link to original post)

Although Senate Democratic leaders released a blueprint for a new jobs bill on Tuesday, lawmakers bickered over what to include in the package. The Senate’s rejection Tuesday of a bipartisan deficit commission also highlighted deep divisions within the party over how aggressively to tackle a federal budget crisis that will inevitably require tax increases and spending cuts, The Washington Post writes.

The president will call for a 6.2 percent increase in education spending over last year, including up to $4 billion as part of an effort to revamp the George W. Bush-era programs that expanded testing to measure student progress, aides to the president said Tuesday.

Senior aides said Obama will link the increase in education funding to his calls for school reform. They said his proposals fit into a broader effort by the White House to focus scarce resources on the nation’s long-term economic health.

Read the full post here.

Watch video here.

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Financial Fetish

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 23.01.10 at 05:07

Once again economist David Rosenberg puts the chairs back in place. “Why save the banks, only to punish them?”, he asks. And once again he provides an insightful answer.

“For some reason, the bonuses on Wall Street were deemed to be “obscene” but no such mention was made of Fannie and Freddie, and no mention of the “excessive risks” and “binge of irresponsibility” being taken on by the FHA in its quest to promote homeownership with virtually no down-payment at taxpayer expense.”

David Rosenberg

(Article in English, link to report in English)

“If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have.” Eight years ago that would have been George Bush the son talking about terrorists.

“But today (yesterday actually) it is President Obama talking about the banks,” chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, points out.

“For some reason, the bonuses on Wall Street were deemed to be “obscene” but no such mention was made of Fannie and Freddie, and no mention of the “excessive risks” and “binge of irresponsibility” being taken on by the FHA in its quest to promote homeownership with virtually no down-payment at taxpayer expense … wait for those losses to mount. No wonder a Bloomberg poll just found that 77% of U.S. investors polled see the President as being “anti-business,” he writes in Fridays edition of “Breakfast With Dave”.

But he also make some other important observations:

“Indeed, yesterday’s selloff was “blamed” on President Obama’s stepped up attack on the banking sector. All 10 S&P sectors were down and the worst performer was basic materials, so China’s recent policy tightening moves were at play as well.”

As usual Mr. Rosenberg’s market commentaries are well worth a read.

Here’s a copy of todays remarks from Gluskin Sheff and David Rosenberg.

U.S. market Snap Shots

The big question among investors is (of course) if this downturn marks the beginning of a downward trend, or not.

Looking at the charts for S&P’s 500 over the last few weeks, it seems like a downward trend started about two weeks ago. But nothing is certain in this market!

Standard & Poor’s 500 (Relative Strength Index and Force Indicator):

Today’s performance.

Dow Jones (RSI and On-balance Volume Indicator):

Nasdaq Composite (RSI and OBV):



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Sound of Wall Street – Part 2

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 25.10.09 at 22:20

 This is part 2 of my musical summary of the still ongoing global financial crisis that started back in mid 2006.

Be sure to watch part 1.




I denne musikalske oppsummering av finanskrisen er vi kommet frem til fjerde kvartal 2007. Økonomer proklamerer at bunnen i aksjemarkedet er nådd, og at USA neppe ville falle inn i en resesjon. 2008 skulle vise seg å bli det mest grufulle finansåret siden 1929.



Selv om en rekke ledende finansfolk hadde advart mot den store markedsrisikoen siden våren 2007, var det først på høsten at det begynte å matrialisere seg.

Flere storforhandlere av subprimelån og hedgefond som hadde investert i dette markedet begynte å melde om problemer.

17.august opplevde USA sin første “Bank Run ” på nesten 20 år.

Et par månder senere så vi den første “Bank Run” i Storbritannia på 100 år: 

Suprimekrisen var blitt global.

Ryktene begynte å svirre om at de store Wall Street-gigantene som Bear Stearns og Citigroup var i trøbbel på grunn av sine subprimeinvesteringer. Og det begynte å komme noen merkelige analyser fra en nærmest ukjent bankanalytiker ved navn Meredith Whitney. 

Året 2008 starter rått og brutalt:

04.01.2008: Wall Street: Blodig børsuke

“Bohemian Financial Rapsody”


30.01.2008: FBI etterforsker subprime

02.02.2009: Krisepakke vedtatt i natt

03.03.2008: Wall Street: “Party is over”

22.03.2008: Sentralbanker i krisemøte 


Federal Reserve begynte å kutte renten, samt øke lånerammene til bankene siden det ikke var mulig å låne penger i markedet lenger.

Men markedet fortsatte neduren med uforminsket styrke. Sentralbansjef Ben Bernanke var under enormt press.

“The Market Crashed On Me”


Krisefølelsen ble ytterligere forsterket av at oljeprisen hoppet til 150 dollar fatet, noe som ikke bare fikk konsekvenser for Wall Street men også for vanlige amerikanere.

“All Pumped Up”


Megasjokket kom likevel sent på kvelden 14.september.

Verdens fjerde største bank – Lehman Brothers – ble slått konkurs av amerikanske myndigheter.


15.09.2008: Historiens største bankkonkurs

15.09.2008: Global børskollaps

18.09.2008: Krisen er total


Og når man trodde at situasjonen knapt kunne bli verre, dukket det opp et selskap kalt AIG.
(For øvrig verdens største forsikringsselskap på den tiden)

17.09.2008: AIG reddet fra konkurs 

10.11.2008: AIG reddes for andre gang 

“Money (went away)”



I oktober gjennomfører sentralbankene over hele verden en koordinert aksjon – en historisk aksjon vi aldri har sett maken til.

Vi er vitne til at et helt land går konkurs. Det synes som elendigheten ikke har noen ende.


14.11.2008: Freddie Mac har implodert 

07.11.2008: Wall Street: Wall Street: General i grøfta

15.11.2008: Wall Street: Wall Street: USA-økonomien rakner

24.11.2208: 2140 milliarder til Citigroup

26.11.2008: USA: USA: 7700 milliarder i krisehjelp

“Total Collaps of The Street”


På andre forsøk klarte president George W. Bush å få Kongressen med på å innvilge en redningspakke på 700 milliarder dollar for å redde nasjonens banksystem fra å bryte fullstendig sammen. 

Disse pengene er senere blitt kjent som TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program).

Samtidig har Federal Reserve opprettet nye kanaler til sentralbankene i Sveits, Europa og Japan med tilgang til ubegrensede mengder dollar. 

I noen dager var det fullstendig halleluja-stemning på Wall Street.

“Go Tell It In Accountin'”


Aldri før har noen sentralbank satt renten til 0 prosent.

Det skjedde i 16.desember og utløste et nytt kortvarig aksjerally.

16.12.2008: USA: Renten er null prosent

“You’ve got the FED”


Men nå begynte den jevne innbygger å reagere. Opphisset av to presidentkandidater som begge hadde gjort finanskrisen til den store valgkampsaken.

Boligprisen faller ennå, arbeidsledigheten øker stadig og bankene strammer mer og mer inn overfor privatkunder.

Noe som provoserte voldsomt var “The Big Three” sin tiggerferd til Washinton.

21.11.2008: Wall Street: Krisehjelp med stil  

“Economy Bailout Song”


Fortvilelsen er nå i ferd med å gå over til raseri ettersom bankene desperat prøver å bli lønnsomme igjen

17.12.2008: Julehilsen fra Citibank 

“No More Bull”


De ansatte hos Lehman Brothers i England sender ut følgende julehilsen med følgende melding:

“We’re not all to blame. Just a handful of bastards”


Mot årskiftet begynte aktørene å rette blikket mot presidentvalget og mulighetene for en ny regjering. (Og nye krisepakker).

Mange hadde nok en følelse av at stort verre kunne det ikke bli. Uansett.


Tredje og siste del av denne musikkvideoserien om finanskrisen dukker opp her neste helg.





In Financial Markets, Views, commentaries and opinions on 10.04.09 at 00:42

Wall Street: Såpedramatikk

Dramatikken rundt de store bilselskapene i USA fortsetter som i en uendelig såpeopera. President Bush ombestemmer seg i siste øyeblikk og foreslår å gi bilindustrien et sugerør i krisekassen til Wall Street; det såkalte TARP-programmet. Markedsaktørene får den ene overraskelsen etter den andre.

Dramaet omkring de tre store bilselskapene i USA inneholder omtrent alt man kan forvente å se i en amerikansk produsert såpeopera.
I glamorøs luksus ankommer de tre mektige industrilederne, Wagoner, Mullally og Nardelli, Washington i hvert sitt privatfly for å overtale presidenten til å gi dem 25 milliarder dollar i nødlån så de ikke går konkurs.

Episode 1

Men først må de møte presidentens menn som selvsagt har sin egen politiske agenda, og i stedet for å diskutere hvordan situasjonen i bilindustrien bør håndteres får de tre toppsjefene en moralsk overhøvling for sin flybruk og sendes hjem i unåde.
Med rulleteksten i form av tickere og tall fra børsen glidende over skjermen, fader de tre ut i solnedgangen med et grublende ansiktsuttrykk; Hva gjør vi nå?

Episode 2

I neste episode ankommer en kaskade av skinnende miljøvennlige hybridbiler Capitol Hill.

Mens regjeringens talskvinne, Nancy “Alexis” Pelosi, ser strengt på de tre kriseskremte konsernsjefene lover de bot og bedring, moralsk renselse og utsikter til nye økonomiske glanstider.
Etter å ha sagt seg villig til gå med på nærmest hva som helst, får de til slutt innvilget 14 milliarder dollar i Representantenes Hus.
Men det er adskillig mindre enn de 25 de trenger. Den økonomiske krisen forverres, og rulleteksten kjøres mens “Per, Pål og Espen askeladd” ser bekymret på hverandre og aner uro.

Episode 3

For før presidenten kan signere for lånet må det godkjennes av Senatet.
Nå er de tre forretningsfolkene fra Detroit fanget i et politisk spill mellom republikanske og demokratiske politikere i Washington der det handler om å score viktige politiske poeng – det er den avtroppende presidentens og hans republikanske meningsfellers ettermæle det handler om.
Og med knallhard konservativ retorikk banker Mitch “Blake CarringtonMcConnell bilselskapenes lånesøknad i fillebiter.
Bilsjefene ryster oppgitt på hodet, mens Wall Street sitter klistret til skjermene og venter på neste avsnitt i dramaet.

Episode 4

En av verdens største industrier står i fare for å rase sammen. Millioner av mennesker kan miste arbeidet.
General Motors begynner å forberede seg på en konkurs.
Men plutselig dukker sjefen sjøl, George “DiMera” Bush, opp.
Og til alles overraskelse går han mot sine egne og forsvarer sine politiske motstandere ved å anbefale at bilindustrien får nødhjelp. Ikke bare det; han foreslår at bilprodusentene får tilgang til krisepakken på 700 milliarder dollar som er øremerket til finansforetakene på Wall Street.
Sjokket er lammende. Til og med volatilitetsindeksen VIX står helt stille en liten stund.
Etter hvert innser vi at ingenting er forandret og man er tilbake til utgangspunktet.
Scenen er satt for en ny runde med nye plott, etter beste Hollywood-oppskrift.

Episode 5

Politikerne har elegant parkert de vanskelige bilprodusentene i kjelleren inntil videre.
Og nye intriger introduseres.
Wall Steet får en ny “Enron-skandale”. Politiet arresterer investorlegenden, og tidligere styreformann på Nasdaqbørsen, Bernard Madoff, og tiltaler ham for svindel i størrelsesorden 50 milliarder dollar. Madoff skal angivelig har drevet et investeringssopplegg som i virkeligheten er et ulovlig pyramidespill.
Med 50 milliarder er dette trolig den største finansskandalen i amerikansk historie, og kan svekke den tynnslitte tilliten til markedet ytterligere.

Fra Det Hvite Hus kommer også en overraskende melding om at Bush-regjeringen neste måned – like før den går av – vil legge frem forslag til en økonomisk stimuluspakke på 500 til 600 milliarder dollar som skal brukes på grønne energiprosjekter og utvikling av bredbåndsteknologien i internettet.
Etter nok en heseblesende uke med ny overraskelser med store bevegelser ender det amerikanske aksjemarkedet fredag på den positive siden.
Dramatikk fortsetter i neste episode.

Her er rulleteksten:

Nøkkeltall: USA

Standard & Poor’s 500 er opp 0,70 prosent.

Dow Jones er opp 0,75 prosent.

Nasdaq Composite opp 2,18 prosent.

Nasdaq Other Financial er opp 0,09 prosent.

Volatilitetsindeksen, VIX, er ned 2,69 prosent, til 54,28 poeng.

Oljeserviceindeksen, OSX, er ned 0,73 prosent.

Olje og gull ned

WTI-olje omsettes for 46,62 dollar fatet – ned 1 dollar og 36 cent.

Gull omsettes for 820,30 dollar per unse – opp 6 dollar og 30 cent.

En dollar noteres til 6,9252 kroner. En euro noteres til 1,3374 dollar.
Følg de amerikanske markedene her.

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