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Posts Tagged ‘Dow Jones & Company’

You Sue Me, I Sue You, Oh Peggy, Peggy Sue

In Financial Markets, Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 18.05.10 at 22:58

Okay, so now we have Italian authorities suing German and Swiss banks, the Greeks are suing the American and the Americans are suing themselves. The banks are being accused of misleading investors and not telling the truth by the very same regulators and governments who over the last three years have been telling us that “the worst is over” and that the global economy is on the road to recovery.

“The-worst-is-over-my-ass”

econotwist

It seems pretty clear by now that the banks, in fact, have been manipulating the markets, misleading investors and covered up their risks so no one can figure out what their real financial exposure is. But I have trouble imagine that only the bankers knew about it, and that the politicians and regulators have been totally in the dark.

The financial industry is broadly represented in governments and regulatory institutions all over the world.

And that’s okay. It provides the elected leaders with important knowledge about how our financial system works. Or, at least it is supposed to.

Looking back over the last few years, it’s amazing to see how ignorant even the most prominent economic experts must have been.

It’s almost unbelievable.

Greenspan’s Tsunami

One of the most surreal moments of today’s financial crisis was when formed FED chairman Alan Greenspan was to testify before the U.S. Congress in October 2008 after the collapse of the American subprime mortgage market.

Mr. Greenspan, for many years regarded as one of the best economists in the world, told the Congress that he was “in a state of shock and disbelief.”

Adding that he still did not fully understand why it happened.

To compliment the impression of total darkness; exactly two years earlier (October 9th 2006) Alan Greenspan was quoted saying that the “U.S. housing market appears to be emerging from its recent travails” and that “the worst may well be over.”

Remember – this is the man who was seen as one of the best economists in the entire world.

In Denial?

One might also wonder it the politicians have been in some kind of denial about the severity of the crisis.

I guess many of you remember U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s statement from May 7th 2008:

“There’s progress,” he said. “I think we’re closer to the end of this than the beginning.”

Yeah, right.

In late 2008 and early 2009 Hank Paulson’s words was echoed by politicians all over the world, backed by statements from “independent” economists like the Dean of the NYU Stern School of Business, Thomas F. Cooley:

“There are distinct signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy, parts of Europe and elsewhere. There is a definite sense that the worst is over.” (May 11th 2009)

“After months of turmoil, the worst of the financial crisis is over — unless governments decide to mess it up,” executive director Mark Mullin at the Frasier Institute said on November 17th 2008.

Well, obviously they did…

Here’s the Irish Finance Minister, Brian Lenihan, on December 10th 2009:

“The inauguration of John F Kennedy as President of the United States in 1961 gave a powerful sense of hope, possibility and self-belief to Irish people all over the world,” he said, speaking about how the Irish people wanted the country to start believing in itself again.

He had earlier declared that the “worst is over” and that “we are now on the road to economic recovery”.

“As we begin to emerge from the unrelenting economic gloom of the last 18 months, we need to rediscover our optimism and our self-belief.”

He concluded by stating: “Our plan is working.We have turned the corner.”

(And no one has seen him since?)

“It gives the minister optimism as the GDP result is better than foretasted. So we can officially say the recession is over,” Vita Ramanauskaitė,  spokeswoman for the Ministry of Economy in Lithuania said on October 27th 2009.

“The hemorrhaging has peaked. We’re on the other side of the recession now,” Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist, Economic Outlook Group, said on July 5th 2009.

“There’s still a lot of pain left, but the most dangerous time is over,” director Chris Richardson at Access Economics stated on July 21th 2009.

“The worst of the U.K.‘s recession is over,” according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) business group, July 7th 2009.

“I think I see a light at the end of the tunnel and I don’t think it’s an oncoming train,” Harold L. Sirkin with The Boston Consulting Group said on April 27th 2009.

(Guess Mr. Sirkin is still trying to figure that one out).

“I believe that the greatest part of the [crisis’] negative impact is behind us,” Mario Breglia, president of Italian property intelligence company, Scenari Immobiliari, said on October 28th 2008.

Intelligence?!

The Media Heavyweights

The ones who were supposed to call the bluff – the big media – were among the first to declare that the experts was right.

First ; Steve Forbes, founder of the prestigious Forbes Magazine and publisher of the famous Forbes 500 lists.

“I think the credit crisis – the worst of it – is over. The fever is broken,” Mr. Forbes said on October 29th 2008.

Then; Rupert Murdoch, owner of Fox Broadcasting Company, Dow Jones & Company and The Wall Street Journal (among other):

Speaking to analysts on a conference call, May 6th 2009, Mr. Murdoch said:

“It is increasingly clear that the worst is over. There are emerging signs in some of our businesses that the days of precipitous declines are done and that revenues are beginning to look healthier.”

Well, what has become “increasingly clear” is that the financial media was just as lost as politicians and the financial “experts.”

Financial News.com (October 20th 2008): “Directors at companies across Europe have this month increased the amount of shares they bought in their own companies, suggesting they believe the bottom of the market may soon arrive.”

The Guardian (May 11th 2009) “The worst of the recession may now be over, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which said today that Britain is among a handful of countries which may be seeing a pause in its economic slowdown.”

The Australian.com (February 15th 2010): “There is clearly a growing confidence that the worst is over.”

Anyway – the biggest bluff ever was pulled off at December 5th 2008, after the U.S. Labor Report showed a drop of 533.000 jobs in November – the worst labor report since 1974.

The Biggest Bluff Of All

As unbelievable as it seem now, the report was in fact analyzed and found to be yet another sign that “the worst is over.”

Here’s some of the statements from that day:

“This is history,” says economist Ram Bhagavatula, who’s also managing director at Combinatorics Capital. “December payrolls will be weak as well. The leading indicators will come from a slow re-activation of the credit markets and increases in consumer spending. You should begin to see that in the next couple of months.”

“Every recession has its worst day, and this is probably the worst day,” says Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

“It suggests we are getting so weak there will be a turnaround,” says Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics.

Economists pointed to historical data and recent developments as solid grounds for their optimism.

“Once you have a steep drop like that, even a steady weak state starts to look better,” Brian Bethune, senior U.S. economist at Global Insight.

“There’s now starting to be some visibility about how this might end,” says David Resler, chief economist at Nomura International.

Visibility? How it might end?

Excuse me, Mr. Chief Economist, have you had your eyes checked lately?

Hallelujah! A Revelation!

Just last week two of the most influential persons, when it comes to European economy, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet and former British PM Gordon Brown finally arrived at the same conclusion as millions of people around the world have found out a long time ago; that this probably is the worst economic crises ever.

Hallelujah! They must have had some kind of revelation.

But still, there are plenty of political and economic leaders who try to insure us that “the worst is over.”

California’s Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger being one of them.

“Despite the state’s high unemployment rate, California’s economy is making a slow comeback and the worst is over,” Schwarzenegger said on February 21th this year..

“We’ve seen that the foreclosure rate has slowed down. We’ve seen that the house sales have picked up. We’ve seen people are getting back to work, especially in the green sector. So there’s signs all over.”

(What has he been smoking?)

“The Global economy appears to be recovering and the worst is definitely over,” chairman of the International Monetary Fund, Youssef Boutros-Ghali, said in Washington at April 26th 2010.

“With good crop prospects, remunerative prices being in place and Indian prices broadly in line with international prices, we will soon be able to stabilize food prices,” prime minister, Manmohan Singh, of India said on February 7th 2010.

“The economy is starting to show some positive signs. So business for us is looking up, particularly the past 60 to 90 days. We’re hoping it’s going to be a lot of fun soon,” Royal Bank of Canada Bank president Reggie Davis said on April 20th 2010.

Islamabad, May 4th 2010: “Prime Minister Gilani stated that as a result of bold policy measures taken over the last two years, macro-economic stability has been restored, manufacturing has begun to pick up, business climate is improving and exports are on the rise. He observed that challenges remain but the worst is over.”

“I think the worst is over for the crisis that we’ve had – the sort of peak of the crisis.” prime minister of Greece, George Papandreou, concluded on April 3th 2010.

The-worst-is-over-my-ass!

Sue, Baby, Sue!

So, now the banks are being sued because they’ve been telling their clients and investors more or less the same things as the politicians, the central banks and their economic experts have been telling their citizens.

After trillions of bailout dollars at tax payers’ expense, will the central banks be sued for being the big banks accomplice in a crime?

When do we see the first law suit being filed against a government for misleading the public?

Or will governments start suing people for voting on the wrong politicians?

Just don’t tell me that the “worst is over”….

Related by the Econotwist:

Italy Charge Foreign Banks With Fraud

EU Wants Answers From Wall St. On Greek Debt

Goldman Sachs Charged With Fraud – Here’s The SEC filing

Civil And Criminal Probes Against JP Morgan For Silver Manipulation

SEC To Take Action Against Moody’s

U.S. Stock Crash Compels Further Investigation of Wall Street Scam

Wall Street Collapse: Did Somebody See It Coming?

Banks Face Multi-Hundred-Million Dollar Settlements

The Truth, Some Truth And Something Like The Truth

DnB NOR Except Penalties of NOK 26 million

Breeding New Watchdogs

Banks Protesters Storm Irish Parliament

E.U. Prepared To Set Up Own Rating Agency

Europe To Fight Speculators With “Secret Plan”

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Financial Fetish

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 23.01.10 at 05:07

Once again economist David Rosenberg puts the chairs back in place. “Why save the banks, only to punish them?”, he asks. And once again he provides an insightful answer.

“For some reason, the bonuses on Wall Street were deemed to be “obscene” but no such mention was made of Fannie and Freddie, and no mention of the “excessive risks” and “binge of irresponsibility” being taken on by the FHA in its quest to promote homeownership with virtually no down-payment at taxpayer expense.”

David Rosenberg

(Article in English, link to report in English)

“If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have.” Eight years ago that would have been George Bush the son talking about terrorists.


“But today (yesterday actually) it is President Obama talking about the banks,” chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, points out.

“For some reason, the bonuses on Wall Street were deemed to be “obscene” but no such mention was made of Fannie and Freddie, and no mention of the “excessive risks” and “binge of irresponsibility” being taken on by the FHA in its quest to promote homeownership with virtually no down-payment at taxpayer expense … wait for those losses to mount. No wonder a Bloomberg poll just found that 77% of U.S. investors polled see the President as being “anti-business,” he writes in Fridays edition of “Breakfast With Dave”.

But he also make some other important observations:

“Indeed, yesterday’s selloff was “blamed” on President Obama’s stepped up attack on the banking sector. All 10 S&P sectors were down and the worst performer was basic materials, so China’s recent policy tightening moves were at play as well.”

As usual Mr. Rosenberg’s market commentaries are well worth a read.

Here’s a copy of todays remarks from Gluskin Sheff and David Rosenberg.

U.S. market Snap Shots

The big question among investors is (of course) if this downturn marks the beginning of a downward trend, or not.

Looking at the charts for S&P’s 500 over the last few weeks, it seems like a downward trend started about two weeks ago. But nothing is certain in this market!

Standard & Poor’s 500 (Relative Strength Index and Force Indicator):

Today’s performance.

Dow Jones (RSI and On-balance Volume Indicator):

Nasdaq Composite (RSI and OBV):

EUR/USD (RSI&OBV):

GOLD (RSI&OBV):


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2010 Analysis: "11 Black Swans"

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 01.01.10 at 03:46

The independent research and financial advisory firm Wealth Daily presents a list of 11 possible “Black Swans” for 2010. Among the highly unlikely (but possible) events is; total collapse in China, England will be forced to seek help from IMF and Dow Jones hits 20 000.

“No one is talking about an extended bull market, and I’ll grant you that with the amount of debt the U.S. has taken on – on both personal and national levels – it seems the market’s geared for a long up-move.”

Brian Hicks

(Article in Norwegian, links to reports in English)

Wealth Daily er liten skjelden blomst i det enorme universet av internasjonale analyse- og investeringsrådgivere.

Selskapets grunnlegger, Brian Hicks, beskriver sin investeringsfilosofi på denne måten:

“The greatest investment advice I ever received didn’t come from Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, or my grandfather. It came from a car salesman I never knew or met. And I’ll bet you never heard of him either. He lives in California and his name is Carlos Gray. Carlos grew up as the son of a migrant worker from Mexico and a WWII veteran from Rockford, Tennessee. He never went to college, but that didn’t stop him from becoming the richest person in his family. To date, Carlos’ net worth is in excess of $9 million. He didn’t become wealthy by trading stocks or flipping real estate. He did it in a most unique way. He did it by selling cars.Mind you, Carlos doesn’t own any car dealerships and never has. And he didn’t sell expensive cars like Mercedes, Ferraris, Rolls Royces or Jaguars. He built his wealth selling cars that sold for less than $20,000.”

Siden oppstarten i 1994 har Brian Hicks spesialisert seg på å identifisere billige, undervuderte og nærmest ukjente aksjer, og kan vise til en imponerende vekst i sine kunders porteføljer.

I 2002 anbefalte Wealth Daily kjøp av selskapet Polymet. Siden da har aksjen steget 7780 prosent.

Wealth Daily utgir daglige investeringstips, i tillegg til jevnlige makroøkonomiske spesialrapporter.

Her er Brian Hicks liste over mulige overraskelser i 2010:

1.Full kollaps i Kina.

2. England går konk, og må be IMF om krisehjelp.

3. Alle kullkraftverk blir nedlagt.

4. Prisen på uranium spretter opp til 90 dollar per pund.

5. Demokratene klarer å beholde flertallet i den amerikanske Kongressen.

6. Kina dropper dollaren som referansevaluta.

7. Iran utvikler sin første atombombe.

8. Nytt krakk i boligmarkedet.

9. Dow Jones-indeksen når 20 000 poeng.

10. Solenergi blir en hovedkilde for energi.

11. USA legaliserer mariuana.

Here’s a short version of the report “11 Black Swans”.

Here’s  Wealth Daily’s “2010 Stock Market Outlook”.

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Wall Street: "Explosive"

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 14.11.09 at 03:37

More big moves in the forex market are sending new waves through the stock- and commodity markets. The dollar is taking another dive, pushing stocks and most commodities higher. No one makes long term investments in this market. Option traders at Chicago Board of Options Exchange are expecting price swings between 20% and 30% before the end of the month.

 

“An outside fundamental news story will decide which way prices move. Until then, investors should be wary as the market pinches into an area that would be explosive.”

George Kupp

(Article in Norwegian)

explosion1

Nye store bevegelser i valutamarkedet skaper nye bølger i aksje- og råvaremarkedet. Etter torsdagens hopp i dollarkursen, stuper den amerikanske valutaen igjen. Ingen tør investere langsiktig. Opsjonstraderne på derivatbørsen venter “eksplosive” prissvingninger.

Etter et kraftig comeback tosdag, fortsetter dollaren like kraftig ned igjen fredag.

Markedet følger etter i vanlig fasong. Det vil si; råvarer og aksjekurser stiger.

Men fredag er det faktisk ett untak – oljeprisen.

Oljeoverskudd

Oljeprisen fortsetter ned. Vanligvis pleier den også å følge dollarkursen.

Dette forklares med gårsdagens lagertall fra USA som viser et market, og mer enn forventet, økning i de amerikanske olje- og bensinlagrene.

“There’s a battle in the oil markets between bearish fundamentals and expectations on when the economy turnaround will come,” sier analytiker Gene McGillian hos Tradition Energy til CNBC.

Oljemarkedet ser ut til å være det eneste markedet som har litt kontakt med fundamentet i øyeblikket.

Alt annet er offer for den algoritmiske handelen.

Dagens viktigste makrotall, The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, viser et fall fra 70,6 til 66,0 fra oktober til november.

Analytikernes estimater lå rundt 72 poeng.

Det er også lagt frem nye tall for den amerikanske handelsbalansen som viser den største økningen i underskuddet på 10 år.

Men det stopper ikke Dow Jones indeksen fra å skyte opp 2,5 prosent.

Kun kort sikt

I dette markedet er det ingen som tar sjansen på noen langsiktige investeringer. Til det er usikkerheten for stor.

– Hvis du skal inn i markedet nå må du være kjapp i vendingen, og forberedt på å dumpe aksjene hurtig hvis det dukker opp svakheter, sier porteføljeforvalter Russ Koesterich Barclays Global Investors til The Wall Street Journal.

“We may not have a lot of short-term impediments, but if you look at the longer haul, you have serious headwinds, starting with the employment picture.”

CNBCs faste kommentator – Art Cashin – advarer mot store svingninger neste uke, forsterket av at det er utløpsdato for flere viktige cross-border valutaopsjoner.

Se intervjuet med Art Cashin her.

 


Eksplosivt

Bortsett fra olje, stiger de andre råvarene synkront med dollarkursen.

De store svingningene, som for eksempel torsdag, gjør at prisene svinger utenfor de tekniske trendlinjene, noe som igjen kan føre til kraftige motreaksjoner.

Senioranalytiker George Kupp hos LaSalles Futures Group i Chicago viser til opsjonshandelen med sukkerkontrakter og sier til Bloomberg News at prisene kan komme til å gjøre bevegelser på mellom 20 og 30 prosent innen november er omme.

“An outside fundamental news story will decide which way prices move. Until then, investors should be wary as the market pinches into an area that would be explosive.”

For en grundigere analyse av siste uke på Wall Street kan vi by på en liten delikatesse.

Her er en rykende fersk analyse fra selveste Goldman Sachs.

 


Carry-Trade ikke bæredyktig

Når valutaen driver aksjemarkedet, hva er det da som driver valutamarkedet? spør Bloomberg Television, og Bloombergs egen analytiker Sara Elsen forklarer i denne videoen hvordan tingene henger sammen.

Ifølge Sara Elsen er det en betydelig sjanse for at korrelasjonen mellom valuta- og aksjemarkedet kan bryte sammen i løpet av de neste månedene.

The Dollar is Getting Spooky

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 04.11.09 at 03:45

The US stock market ends almost flat tuesday as doubts about the recovery surfaced again. It’s become obvious that the stock market is now following the currency, specialy the EUR/USD, and a sharp rebound for the greenback will lead to a downward correction in stocks. In a worst case scenario can a big dollar rally cut the S&P’s 500 in half. The price of gold reach its highest level ever at 1084,84 dollar an ounce.

“There is some initial indication of a technical breakdown in the US.”

Christopher Wood

(Article in Norwegian)

 barnanke-s-dollar-dangerous-situation.jpg

Aksjeindeksene på Wall Street ender omtrent flatt tirsdag etter ny usikkerhet om den økonomiske utviklingen. Det synes klart at aksjemarkedet nesten slavisk følger utviklingen i dollarkursen og at et dollarrally i verste fall kan halvere aksjekursene. Prisen på gull når ny rekord.

Det elektroniske valutamarkedet vokser i et rasende tempo og de automatiske handelsprogrammene blir mer og mer avanserte.

Fra å gjøre 150 transaksjoner på en dag for et halvt års tid siden, klarer robotene nå 1 500 om dagen.

Slikt blir det volatilitet av.

Farlig dollarrally

Valuta, spesielt dollar, er blitt spekulasjonsinstrument nummer en.

Investorer, store som små, kjøper billige dollar og investerer dem i andre mer risikable papirer som gir større avkastning.

Den sterkt økende etterspørselen etter dollar presser med jevne mellomrom kursen opp, selv om de fleste analytikere mener den amerikanske valutaen vil fortsette å svekkes på sikt.

Men det advares også mot et kraftig “bear market“-rally i dollarkursen.

Med den korrelasjonen det er mellom aksjekurser og valuta i øyeblikket kan et dollarrally sende aksjeindeksen Standard & Poor’s ned under 500 poeng, hevder flere.

Her er et intervju med aksjeanalytiker Christopher Wood hos CLSA, fra CNBC tirsdag.

“There is some initial indication of a technical breakdown in the US.”

Korrelasjonen mellom dollarkurs og aksjekurser kan best ses i forhold til euro.

Her er EUR/USD i oktober:

eur_usd.jpg

Og her er Standard & Poor’s 500 i samme periode:

s-p500_oktober.jpg

Dow Jones-indeksen følger samme mønster:

dow_oktober.jpg

 

Gull til himmels

Når dollarkursen tikker opp, faller som regel gullprisen.

Slik er det derimot ikke i dag; prisen på gull nådde i ettermiddag 1087,8 dollar per unse. Det er den høyeste gullprisen noensinne.

Flere gulleksperter som er samlet i Edinburg for den årlige konferansen tilLondon Bullion Market Association mener det er den generelle usikkerheten i økonomien som gjør at etterspørselen øker og presser prisen opp.

Administrerende direktør Mehdi Barkhordar hos Produits Artistiques Metaux Precieux sier ifølge AFP at fysisk gull er den eneste sikre investeringen i den nåværende økonomiske situasjonen.

Han sier videre at det edle metallet er blitt en “mainstream option” for investorer, og at det har skjedd et fundamentalt skifte i gullmarkedets dynamikk.

Styreformann Kevin Crisp i London Bullion Market Association sier til Reuters at gullprisen fortsatt støttes av de økonomiske bekymringene.

– Jeg synes de globale utsiktene fremdeles er litt tåkete. Det betyr at flere ønsker denne “forsikringspolisen”, sier Crisp.
US Mint melder at etterspørselen etter samlemynter i gull har “ekspolodert” i oktober.

15.oktober lanserte US Mint den nye mynten “American Buffalo one-ounce 24-c” (etter 15 måneders forsinkelse). Den er nå revet bort, og 115 000 mynter er solgt i løpet av to uker.

Ifølge CoinNews er det ikke noe annet to-ukers salg som kan sammenlignes med dette.

1087,84 dollar per unse

Det er den nye rekordnoteringen for gullprisen.

Det som er litt pussig, er at vi ser et hopp i gull prisen på nøyaktig samme tidspunkt som dollarkursen spretter opp.

Her er først gullprisen:

gull_oval.jpg

Og her er USD/NOK:

usdnok_oval.jpg

I begge chartene ser vi en markert bevegelse klokken 16:30.

Men det er vel bare enda en tilfeldighet? 

 

 

Robots Gone Wild On Wall Street

In Financial Markets on 30.10.09 at 23:07

A huge influx of “erroneous” orders prevented the New York Stock Exchange from disseminating quotes shortly after the start of trading on Friday. Probably caused by an abnormal amount of High Frequencey Trading. It seem like the problems are getting worse as the sell-off is intensifying. Still unclear if the problems are solved. 

“These are the problems that we talk about when we talk of systemic risk in the system”

Joe Saluzzi, Themis Trading

(Article in Norwegian)

 

 nyse-floor.jpg

Aksjemarkedet på Wall Street stuper fredag. New York-børsen sitt datasystem brøt sammen etter en halvtimes handel. Det er ennå uklart om problemet er løst. Årsaken er trolig en enorm “High Frequency Trading”-aktivitet.

Det var en kaotisk åpning på Wall Street-handelen fredag.

Etter gårsdagens kjempefest på bakrgrunn av de siste BNP-tallene, er det amerikanske aksjemarkedet nå i fritt fall.

Denne flash-meldingen ble sendt ut etter 39 minitters handel. Ingen annen informasjon ble gitt.

Reuters skriver i dag: “The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, under pressure from some politicians and investors, is looking into the ultra-fast trading technique in which banks, hedge funds and proprietary shops use sophisticated algorithms to earn profits from market imbalances and tiny spreads.”

“SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro said this week that there was “a lot of concern” about high-frequency trading. The regulator plans to issue a discussion paper on the issue early next year and proposals by the middle of 2010.”

Bloomberg News, rapporterte tirsdag: “ING Groep NV stock was suspended in Europe today after a “huge concentration” of orders overwhelmed computers on the Euronext system.”

“Investors are paying the exchange to be able to deliver seamless uninterrupted trading even at the worst possible time,” said Mamoun Tazi, European exchange analyst at MF Global Ltd.

Standard & Poor’s 500: ned 2,81%

s-p_ny.gif

Dow Jones: ned 2,51%

dow_ny.gif

Nasdaq Composite: ned 2,50%

nas_ny.gif

Les også:

Verdens smarteste bank

Jakter på den siste idiot

Unik økonomisk Cocktail

Wall Street: “Cold Turkey”

Sirkus Wall Street

Wall Street – unplugged

Kommentarer:

Den Store Spillegalskapen

Et mesterverk

Hva pokker skjer?

Først bryter børsens datasystem sammen. Kort tid etter melder NYSE at problemet er løst.

Så kommer følgende melding som tydelig viser at ikke alt er helt i orden likevel.

Det synes som om computerproblemene øker etterhvert som aksjedumpingen intensiveres.

nyse_siste.jpg

Robotene går amok

Alt tyder på at en uvanlig stor HFT-handel (High Frequency Trading) er årsaken til at New York-børsen har problemer med i stille riktige kurser fordi en enorm mengde trasaksjoner skjer, bokstavlig talt, i samme millisekund.

“These are the problems that we talk about when we talk of systemic risk in the system. When everything is plugged in together, you could easily have systemic issues,” says Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading.

Her er siste fra Reuters:

Følg Wall Street her.

Wall Street: Dollareffekten

In Financial Markets, Views, commentaries and opinions on 16.10.09 at 03:05

10dollar_bill

 

        

 

       

 
Dow Jones-indeksen holder seg over 10 000 poeng og investorene puster lettet ut. Men flere innser at fallet i dollarkursen er i ferd med å spise opp kursstigningen i det amerikanske aksjemarkedet.

 

  

“Jubel på USA-børsene”, “Rekordstemning på Wall Street“, “Dow Jones over 10 000″ lød de lystige overskriftene i finanspressen onsdag etter at den legendariske Dow Jones-indeksen på New York Stock Exchange passerte det runde tallet for første gang på over ett år.

Men det var nok stort sett mediene som jublet. Det var trolig mer avdempet i Downtown på Manhattan i går kveld. 

En hver Wall Street-proff med kalkulator i lommen kunne lett finne ut at de amerikanske aksjene faktisk er akkurat like mye verdt nå som for nøyaktig 10 år siden.

10 år tilbake

For nøyaktig 10 år siden – 15. Oktober 1999 – endte Dow Jones-indeksen på 10 019 poeng.

Men da var dollarkursen en helt annen. I oktober 1999 kostet var en dollar verdt 7,80 norske kroner. 

I dag står dollaren i 5,55 kroner. 

Mot andre valutaer har dollarkursen svekket seg enda mer.

Utenlandske langsiktige investorer i USA har enda en stykke igjen å gå før de kan si de at de har tjent inn igjen det tapte.

Ifølge Dorsey Wright and Associates må dollaren styrke seg 45 prosent mot euro for at akjene i Dow Jones-indeksen skal bli like mye verdt som for 10 år siden, målt i europeisk valuta.

Dollaren må opp 46 prosent mot australske dollar før “aussiene” får verdien på sine amerikanske aksjer tilbake.

Mot japanske yen trengs det derimot en styrkelse av dollarkursen på “bare” 20 prosent.

 

Dollareffekten

 

En beregning som Encima Global LLC har gjort viser at det amerikanske aksjemarkedet har gjort det betydelig dårligere enn det tyske – mål i euro – siden årtusenskiftet.

s-p500-vs-dax_2000_2009.gif

 

Men det som er den mest bekymringsfulle utviklingen i øyeblikket er at den fallende dollarkursen kanaliserer adskillig mer penger inn i obligasjonsmarkedet enn i aksjemarkedet.

Dorsey Wright and Associates skriver i en markedskommentar at 209,1 milliarder dollar har funnet veien til obligasjonsfond i løpet av årets åtte første måneder, mens bare 15,2 milliarder dollar har gått i aksjemarkedet.

Det betyr at for hver dollar som investeres i aksjer, investeres 14 i obligasjoner.

I følge Casy’s Gold & Resource Report har en amerikansk dollar i dag en kjøpekraft på 18 cent i forhold til 1971 da USA opphevet gullstandarden. 

Sammenhengen

Det kan være vanskelig å påvise direkte sammenhengen mellom de forskjellige markedene, men sammenhengen mellom aksjemarkedet og valutamarkedet kan ses tydelig på oversiktene for de fire siste ukene.

Legg merke til formasjonene.

Standard & Poor’s 500:

s-p500_fra_15sept.gif

Dow Jones Industrial Composite:

dji_fra_15sept.gif

Nasdaq Composite:

nsq_fra-15sept.gif

Og her er valutakursene:

Euro mot dollar:

       

 

 eurusd_fra_10sept.gif

Australske dollar mot amerikanske dollar:

audusd_fra_10sept.gif

New Zealand dollar mot amerikanske dollar:

nzdusd_fra-10sept.gif

Det samme bildet ser vi i gullprisen den siste måneden:

gull_fra_10sept.gif

 

Dette tyder på at oppgangen i det amerikanske aksjemarkedet i stor grad skyldes en justering i forhold til dollarkursen, i like stor grad som optimisme og andre luftige forklaringer.

“Pris tilsvarer ikke verdi”

Analytiker Joe Saluzzi hos Themis Trading advarer mot en ny boble i aksjemarkedet.

Ifølge Saluzzi er det et misforhold mellom pris og verdi på amerikanske aksjer.

“Price Does Not Equal Value, And Everyone Is Chasing Price: This Is What Happened In Every Past Bubble”

“Markets are not efficient, and investor psychology, sentiment and technicals are the only thing that matters”

Se intervjuet med Joe Saluzzi på Bloomberg Television her:    

 

 

Wall Street kan få "straffeskatt"

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 01.09.09 at 00:34
NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 25:  People rally in the ...
Image by Getty Images via Daylife

USA største arbeidstakerorganisasjon går inn for å beskatte aksjehandelen på Wall Street. Det vil ha to fordeler; gi store inntekter og samtidig begrense spekulativ handel, hevder organisasjonen som er en av Obama-regjeringens nærmeste allierte.

 

 

Ifølge en artikkel på nettstedet The Hill er USAs største arbeidstakerorganisasjon, AFL-CIO, sammen med flere demokratiske politikere, i ferd med å snekre sammen et forslag om å beskatte alle aksjetransaksjoner i USA med 0,1 prosent per transaksjon.

Politisk direktør Thea Lee i ALF-CIO sier dette kan gi amerikanske myndigheter mellom 50 og 100 milliarder dollar ekstra inntekter hvert år som kan bli brukt til finansiere infrastrukturprosjekter og andre prioriterte satsninger.

Lee sier også at børsskatten kan bli innført både nasjonalt og internasjonalt.

Vil ramme spekulasjon

– Det vil ha to fordeler; gi store inntekter og dempe spekulativ finansiell aktivitet, sier Lee.

– Den største ulempen med de fleste skatter i dag er at de demper det som er reell produktiv aktivitet. Dette vil legge en demper på mange finansielle transaksjoner. Men folk snur på porteføljene sine flere ganger i timen eller per dag. De tjener penger, men øker det virkelig produktiviteten i USA? sier hun.

Forslaget har en betydelig sjanse for å bli en realitet. Ifølge The Hill har forslaget allerede økende støtte i Kongressen og blant ledende finansfolk i London, deriblant Lord Adair Turner som er styreformann i Financial Services Authority.

Den franske regjeringen støtter forslaget som en ide til å finansiere utviklingen av fattige land.

I strupen på Goldman Sachs

Børsskatten vil først og fremst ramme hedgefond, storbanker og større meglerhus som benytter seg av sin overlegne datateknolologi i såkalt High Frequency Trading (HTF) hvor flere hundre tusen ordrer blir gjennomført i løpet av et knapt sekund.

Det betyr i praksis; først og fremst bankgiganten Goldman Sachs som kontrollerer noen av verdens største hedgefond og har et av verdens største meglerbord.

Ifølge The Hill ønsker de demokratiske politikerne og fagforeningene å få fingrene i en bit av Goldman Sachs sin svulmende formue.

Lederne er sinte på Goldman som har kommet ut som en vinner av finanskrisen innhyllet i en sky av spekulasjoner og konspirasjonsteorier. Finansforetaket går nå med rekordhøyt overskudd etter å ha fått (og betalt tilbake) 10 milliarder dollar i krisehjelp.

Goldman-ansatte ligger an til en personlig bonus på 700 000 dollar i år.

Typisk reaksjon

Det er ikke første gang det foreslås skatt på aksjetransaksjoner.

Dette er et av flere tiltak som myndighetene ofte foreslår under økonomiske kriser.

Det kalles for “Tobin Tax“, etter den avdøde amerikanske økonomen James Tobin som tidlig på 1970-tallet foreslo skatt på finansielle transaksjoner for å bremse valutaspekulasjonene i kjølevannet av kollapsen i Bretton Woods-systemet (gullstandarden).

Gullegg?

Muligheten for at Tobinskatten blir øket og/eller utvidet til å gjelde andre typer finansiell virksomhet er også overhengende.

Den republikanske kongressmannen Peter DeFazio har allerede tatt til orde for å skattlegge handelen på oljekontrakter med 0,2 prosent per transaksjon, og opsjoner på oljekontrakter med 0,5 prosent.

The Hill forteller videre at mange amerikanske politikere kan komme til å se på dette som en gylden mulighet til finansiere det galopperende budsjettunderskuddet.

Sjansen er stor for at børsskatten blir jekket opp adskillige hakk.

Dagens erkjennelse

Det er dog ikke utsiktene til skatt på aksjetransaksjoner som er i fokus blant aktørene på Wall Street mandag. (Det kommer nok…).

Markedet faller markert etter kursfall på alle de ledende børsene i verden.

Investorene på Wall Street dumper finansaksjer etter at finanstidsskriftet Barron’s konstaterer at AIG-aksjen, som har sprudlet opp cirka 300 prosent i løpet av de siste månedene, “synes å være overpriset”.

Det må vel kunne utropes til “The Understatement of The Day”.

Vi bør vel tilføye at Barron’s i fjor vinter kalte AIG-aksjen for “et skrikende kjøp” etter at kursen kollapset i februar og insisterte på at investorenes reaksjon var overdrevet.

Mandag stuper AIG rundt 10 prosent og trekker resten av finanssektoren med seg.

Pump and Dump” er det visst noe som heter…

PS:

Den amerikanske Finansdepartementet eier om lag 80 prosent av aksjene i AIG.

 

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