econoTwist's

Research

External Documents, Analysis and Reports

 

LATEST UPLOADS:

 

 

Google Earnings Slides 2010Q4

 

Breakfast With Dave. 01212011

Market commentary by chief economist David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.

Fitch Ratings. Special Report. “European Government Borrowing” 01192011.

“The number of European countries facing gross borrowing requirements of over 20% of GDP has dropped from eight in 2010 to four in 2011 (with France, Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands now below this threshold). Over the medium term, Fitch expects net borrowing requirements to continue to fall in almost all European countries as deficit cutting programmes continue across the continent. Although this will be partially offset by higher MLT redemptions, gross financing requirements are now on a declining trend.”

Saxo Bank. FX Monthly 2011 January 18.

“Our basic premise that the post QE2 announcement would see a continued retrenchment in risk appetite was more or less wrong, as the adjustment higher in interest rates and the US dollar rally after the announcement proved indecisive and as risk appetite charged higher once again (with a couple of notable exceptions – especially China, which is a critical driver of the future of global growth). China should be getting a lot of focus now and in the months ahead, as the regime is trying to engineer a soft landing in the country’s overheating, inflation-ridden economy. China is the lynchpin of the emerging market trade, and the US dollar as well, due to carry positions and capital flows out of the US and into emerging markets. As China slows and grapples with its economic imbalances, this could severely affect the trajectory of risk appetite as it impinges upon the major currencies.”

Fitch: Nordic Utilities 2011 outlook

“Fitch will change its outlook to negative if cash flows are significantly weaker than its projections. This could be caused by a decline in electricity demand and a
persistently weak pricing environment. The ratings could come under pressure if capex programmes are increased, or issuers pursue debt funded acquisitions, leading to a deterioration in financial profiles. Any negative regulatory changes, for example, the introduction of a substantial nuclear tax, could lead to a change in outlook.”

Fitch. US securities 2011 Outlook

“Fitch Ratings’ 2011 Outlook for the U.S. securities firm industry is Stable. This outlook pertains to entities whose sole or primary business is investment banking. However, there are also large investment banking divisions within universal banks that are subject to the same opportunities and challenges.”

Fitch. US Banks 2011 Outlook

“US.banks will continue to grapple with weak revenue and loan trends due to the economy and legislative changes affecting fee income. Banks will also continue to work through problem credits, mainly concentrated in residential and commercial real estate; however, Fitch expects that new inflows of problem credits will subside and that banks have largely reserved for the losses that remain. Looking into 2011, Fitch anticipates that provision expenses will continue their downward trajectory, with more banks releasing reserves. With all that said, rating activity is likely to be fairly balanced, with some additional Rating Outlook revisions to Stable from Negative.”

Commerzebank: Eco Perspective 9114201.

“The household part of the growth equation is where most of the uncertainties lie for 2011. A new frugal consumer more interested in saving than spending means a very different set of outcomes than would a return of the old party hard consumer. The idea of the new consumer has certainly gained some traction in the economic debate. But the evidence is mixed. Savings rates have lifted. Borrowing rates have slowed. And the trend in retail spending growth has ground to a halt. At the same time, purchases of new cars are running at elevated levels, spending at hotels, cafes & restaurants is growing rapidly and overseas holidays are very popular. None,of these trends sound particularly frugal!”

OECD / IFP: “Reducing Systemic Cybersecurity Risk”

Controversially, the OECD advises nations against adopting the Pentagon’s idea of setting up a military division – as it has under the auspices of the US air force’s Space Command – to fight cyber-security threats.
“While vested interests may want to see taxpayers’ money spent on such ventures,” says Sommer, “the military can only defend its own networks, not the private-sector critical networks we all depend on for gas, water, electricity and banking.”

KROLL Annual Global Fraud Report 2010/2011.

According to the latest issue of Kroll Annual Global Fraud Report, suggest that the theft of digital assets has overtaken that of physical stock for the first time ever in 2010.
A Survey, conducted in cooperation with the Economist Intelligence Unit, indicates that the numbers of companies reporting theft of information has risen sharply – from 18% to 27,3% – in 2010. “There’s a growing awareness among thieves of the intrinsic value of intellectual property,” Kroll vice president, Robert Brenner explains.
The survey also suggest that 88% of the  participating companies had been victim of some kind of fraud over the past year, nearly half of them are now fearful of expanding globally because of the cyber threat.

Kiyohiko G Nishimura (Bank of Japan): Electronic trading and financial markets

“As I have documented so far, advances in information and communication technology have sent ripples and waves over the entire financial industry, providing new opportunities for growth and efficiency. At the same time, these advances pose serious challenges to maintaining market stability and integrity. Thus, to take full advantage of these opportunities, we should work together to maintain the stability and integrity of the financial market and, thereby, the financial system itself. This should be done in a timely manner, so as to cope with the rapid developments in technology.”

IBM: “IT service management in an uncertain economy:”

“As I have documented so far, advances in information and communication technology have sent ripples and waves over the entire financial industry, providing new opportunities for growth and efficiency. At the same time, these advances pose serious challenges to maintaining market stability and integrity. Thus, to take full advantage of these opportunities, we should work together to maintain the stability and integrity of the financial market and, thereby, the financial system itself. This should be done in a timely manner, so as to cope with the rapid developments in technology.”

IBM: “Addressing IT governance, riskand compliance (GRC) to meetregulatory requirements and reduce operational risk in financial services organizations”

“Recent economic turmoil and uncertainty are driving important changes in how financial services organizations are investing in IT, according to a global survey of CIOs and other IT investment owners conducted by IBM during December 2008 and January 2009. The results indicate that organizations are reprioritizing IT projects in response to economic change, and that they are specifically using service management best practices to optimize IT-enabled business activities.”

US Homeland Security. Report January 2011.

“In GOD we trust – all others we monitor.”

DnB NOR Markets. Weekly Scandinavian Update. 01172011.

“This week’s key Norwegian release is likely to be the results from a phone survey done among a sample of Norges Bank’s regional network contacts. The survey is a qualitative update regularly conducted between the full-scale reports published four times a year. The central bank has been known to put considerable emphasis on what they call “fresh and useful information” given by the enterprises in the network. This has particularly been the case at turning points, where there has been considerable uncertainty regarding the momentum in the economy.”

DnB NOR Markets. Morning Report. 01172011. “Higher Inflation”

“Financial markets don’t seem particularly worried that accelerating inflation will cause premature increases in interest rates. US stock markets rose and the S&P index gained for the seventh week in a row. With increased risk appetite government bond yields traded somewhat higher and some of the increase can probably be explained by higher inflation figures than expected. Foreign exchange markets ended last week relatively quiet. The dollar traded more or less sideways against currencies like the euro, Norwegian krone and Japanese yen.”

Earnings Releases. Including estimates. 17 – 23 January 2011

S&P500 and Bloomberg companies.

BNP Paribas. EcoWeek. 01142011.

“It now looks like the principle of better integration within the euro zone has been accepted by strengthening therange of action of the European Financial Stabilisation Fund. The details of EFSF operations must still be worked out and in the meantime, the bond markets of the peripheral countries will not be sheltered. In the medium term, however, the situation should be totally different. The Fund’s expanded powers should lead to greater stability within the region. First, interventions should limit the allocation of intra-zone financial assets due to risk aversion. Second, they eliminate one of the constraints currently straining ECB monetary policy, since the beginning of the crisis and the introduction of the Securities Markets Programme. The ECB will transfer management of the long end of the yield curve to the EFSF so that the central bank can concentrate on its mandate of price stability.”

BNP Paribas Transatlantic Economic Outlook. Update January 2011.Eurasia Group. Top Risks of 2011.

“For the past decade, increasingly technologically capable hackers and organized crime organizations have elevated cybersecurity as a business risk, but not as a political risk. The centralization of data networks, both in energy distribution (the move to the smart grid) and information technology more broadly (the shift to cloud computing) are now metastasizing the cyber risk, and governments are becoming more directly and actively involved in playing both offense and defense in cyberspace. The primary involvement of states in cybersecurity, as both protagonists and principal targets, fundamentally changes the nature of the risk. The new roles of governments and their antagonists bring geopolitics and cybersecurity together in three different ways:”

BNP Paribas. EcoWeek. 01142011.

“It now looks like the principle of better integration within the euro zone has been accepted by strengthening the range of action of the European Financial Stabilisation Fund. The details of EFSF operations must still be
worked out and in the meantime, the bond markets of the peripheral countries will not be sheltered. In the medium term, however, the situation should be totally different. The Fund’s expanded powers should lead to greater stability within the region. First, interventions should limit the allocation of intra-zone financial assets due to risk aversion. Second, they eliminate one of the constraints currently straining ECB monetary policy, since the beginning of the crisis and the introduction of the Securities Markets Programme. The ECB will transfer management of the long end of the yield curve to the EFSF so that the central bank can concentrate on its mandate of price stability.”

BNP Paribas Transatlantic Economic Outlook. Update January 2011.

“Economic indicators suggest continued moderate growth. The manufacturing ISM index was 56.6 in November, following figures of 56.9 and 54.4. The non-manufacturing ISM figure rose to 55 from 54.2 and 53.2. Thus fourth quarter growth is likely to be similar to that in the third quarter. The budget agreement struck in early December between the Obama administration and the Republicans has delayed fiscal consolidation, and thus its restrictive effects, for two years. This is likely to add a quarter of a point of growth in 2011 and 2012.”

4Q10 Earnings Presentation. (Including estimates) 17 – 22 January 2011.

First earnings season of the year starting Monday. S&P500 and Bloomberg companies.

Markit Economic Research. European Union

“The latest EU sector data covering seven broad industry groups and 22 detailed sectors showed that heavy manufacturers remained the best performers, while the recent heavy snow in Northern Europe affected activity in sectors such as construction and transport. Although January should see a rebound from the harsh weather, the data also show underlying weaknesses in consumer- and finance-related sectors.”

Markit Economic Research. Eurozone Soverign Debt

“Further evidence of Eurozone production surge, but national divergences have widened as periphery loses out to Eastern Europe”

City: Global Economic View. “The Debt Nations” January 2011.

“There are no absolutely safe sovereigns — ‘rates analysis’ has to be done simultaneously with ‘credit analysis’ for all sovereigns, including the G3. There are likely to be several sovereign debt restructurings in the euro area (EA) in the next few years. Liquidity support should not stop this; only permanent bail-outs would. The sovereign debt crises of the euro area periphery interact with banking sector weaknesses throughout the EU. Both need to be addressed for a lasting solution.”

.

Options Embedded in Physical Money. Working Paper by Dr. Espen Haug and Dr. John Stevenson. April 2009.

Physical money is in fact a very complex derivative, with several embedded options, the paper show.

.

REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS DESIGNING A DIGITAL FUTURE: FEDERALLY FUNDED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN NETWORKING AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. DECEMBER 2010.

“The smart electric grid must be rigorously protected against cyber-attack. Perhaps the network communications needs of the grid, with requirements somewhat distinct from the open Internet, will merit a new class of network protocols that require strong authentication for all participants. A second line of defense may also be required, in which not just protocols but energy-related behaviors are monitored as well. For example, a consumer might be prevented from bidding for more energy than his connection to the grid can carry; such action requires verification of the credentials and capabilities of all participants.”

.

Transcript of Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad at Hearing on the US Economic Outlook with FED Chairman Ben Bernanke January 7, 2011

Conrad: In terms of when you pivot, that is a critical question. The commission’s conclusion was, you ought not to take the really tough steps that need to be taken for the next several years. You need to begin. You need to adopt the plan. But the real tough medicine needs to wait until the economy is on stronger ground. What would your recommendation be to us?

Bernanke: Mr. Chairman, I think the issue is credibility. If we can, it’s not really sufficient to say, “Well, we’re not do anything now because the recession. We’ll do something later, but we’re not specifying what that is.” I think if we could adopt a credible plan that’s specific enough and credible enough to address the long-run situation, that would be the most positive thing that we could do. And in doing so, we could get really all the benefits without having to take actions that would endanger the very near-term recovery, which is still somewhat fragile.

Conrad: Yes, that was very much the conclusion of the commission. It’s not enough to say, “Yeah, we’re going to do something in the sweet by-and-by.” You’ve actually got to adopt the plan.

.

Saxo Bank: Outrageous Predictions 2011

“What do you do when you want domination of the electronic and mobile device consumer market and have no significant presence in social networking? Oh, and a war chest of a mere USD 51 billion? You buy Facebook, “

.

Breakfast With Dave. 01062911

Market commentary by chief economist David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.

.

Economist Intelligence Unit. 2011 Forecast: The Chinese Economy Crashes

“Although the risks to China’s economy are greater in the long-term, growth could slow sharply in 2011. The dangers to the economy would be compounded by a double-dip recession in developed markets or a rise in protectionism. China’s fiscal position remains strong, but it is questionable whether the government could repeat the massive stimulus seen in 2009 to stave off a slowdown.”

.

Economist Intelligence Unit. 2011 Forecast: The Euro Zone Breaks Up

“This scenario would be hugely destabilizing for the global economy. The weaker ex-members would default as their currencies plummeted and funding costs soared. Banks globally would be severely shaken. The US dollar would shoot up, choking off the US recovery and also hitting countries with currencies tied to the dollar, notably China.”

.

Economist Intelligence Unit. 2011 Forecast: The Global Economy Experiences a Double-dip Recession as Stimulus Fades

“Our baseline forecast is for growth to weaken moderately in 2011 as stimulus is wound down; the risk is of a deeper downturn including renewed contraction in several leading economies. A new wave of countries, whose finances have been weakened by the earlier downturn, would require multilateral assistance, and companies that had barely survived the initial recession would fail.”

.

Economist Intelligence Unit. 2011 Forecast: Economic Upheaval Leads to Widespread Social and Political Unrest

“The risk is that instability becomes systemic, with political crises in certain countries affecting others through contagion or through the actions of populist new regimes seeking to assert themselves. Potential widespread disruption poses a considerable downside risk to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s global economic forecasts.”

.

Economist Intelligence Unit. 2011 Forecast: Developed Economies Fall Into a Deflationary Spiral

“A fall into deflation would blunt the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy-making, retard balance-sheet adjustment in highly indebted economies, and encourage consumers and firms to prioritise debt repayment over consumption. It would also hit profits and lead to lower investment. If deflation took hold, the global economy would face prolonged stagnation.”

.

Economist Intelligence Unit. 2011 Forecast: Tensions Over Currency Manipulation Lead to a Rise in Protectionism

“Given the closely integrated nature of the global economy, governments will find it difficult to close off many aspects of trade, even if they want to. But trade disputes are likely to increase as populist policies clash with countries’ international obligations. Large-scale protectionism would seriously slow economic recovery.”

.

Economist Intelligence Unit. 2011 Forecast: New Asset Bubbles Burst, Creating Renewed Financial Turbulence

“New asset bubbles may be vulnerable to painful corrections as central banks in emerging markets tighten monetary policy, fiscal stimulus is withdrawn, and the weak foundations of recovery become apparent. The resultant dislocations, including a shock to banks and a renewed rise in risk aversion, would reinforce and deepen a new economic slowdown.”

.

Economist Intelligence Unit. 2011 Forecast: Sovereigns Default as Public Debt Spirals Out of Control

“Emerging-market defaults would create some ructions more widely, but as developed-country sovereign bonds have traditionally been considered risk-free, developed-country defaults in particular would wreak havoc on investor psychology. Banks would face write-downs on their government debt portfolios, and financial-sector guarantees by governments that default would be exposed as worthless.”


MORE:

SEARCH MY DOCUMENTS

 

 

 

 

Import, visualize, and calculate using built-in financial data

 

Follow TheSwapp on Twitter

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: