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Archive for December, 2009|Monthly archive page

"Buy The Rising Trend", Market Research

In Financial Markets on 30.12.09 at 22:00

Buying a stock that is already in an upward trend and at the same time provide new buy signals can be very profitable over time, a recent technical analysis from Investtech.com shows.

“The results are clear and very interesting. Shares with the purchase tag from the rising trend has given consistently good results over time, with significant excess returns relative to the benchmark index.”

Asbjørn Taugbøl

(Article in English, copy of original survey in Norwegian)

A recent analysis by research managers Geir Linløkken and Asbjørn Taugbøl at Investtech.com have concluded that the shares that sends purchase signals in a rising trend can be a very profitable investment over time.


“The results are clear and very interesting. Shares with the purchase tag from the rising trend has given consistently good results over time, with significant excess returns relative to the benchmark index,” Taugbøl says.

The research report shows that the shares after buying signal has an average return after one month at 2.7 percent and after 12 months at 20.0 percent.

Stock Exchange’s average is respectively 1.0% and 12.3%, resulting in an excess return of 1.7 and 7.7% respectively after one month and 12 months.

Sales tags, ie shares that are entering a downward trend, falling on average 1.1% the first month.

After one year, the shares of convergence on average increased 5.2 percent, ie 7.2 percentage points less than the benchmark index, the study shows.

Taugbøl and Linløkken has an extensive research work taken based on the shares on the Oslo Stock Exchange from 1996 to 2009.

For each stock is identified on the days on which it has entered a rising trend, and defined this as a buy signal.

Altogether, it was identified 3747 buy signal.

It is then seen to exchange rate movements in the post-purchase signal, and compared with the benchmark index (OSEBX). Similarly, it is seen what happens when the stock comes in a falling trend, defined as a sale tag.

Altogether, it was identified in 2792 such sales signals.

The trends are automatically identified, and the requirement of an upward trend is that it has a rise rate of more than 10 degrees.

Here are the results:

The figure shows the average share price five days prior to the signal and one year after the signal for Norwegian equities in the period 1996-2009. The blue curve is buying signals, when the stock comes in a rising trend. The red curve is selling signals, while the share going into a declining trend, and the black line shows the average share price for the benchmark index in a moving time period of one year for the given date range.

The blue curve, ie, buying signals, is above the black curve after the signal date, and the red curve, ie the sale signals, located under the black curve after the signal date. It shows that the purchase signals, ie purchase of shares when they come into an upward trend, on average, have a positive share price performance relative to the average benchmark index development.

Conversely, the sale signals, ie purchase of shares when they are entering a downward trend, on average, a negative share price performance relative to the average benchmark index development.

For Norway, shares the purchase signal an average return after one month at 2.7% and after 12 months at 20.0%, against the exchange‘s average of respectively 1.0% and 12.3%.

Sales tags, ie shares that are entering a downward trend, falling on average 1.1% the first month. After one year, the share of sales signal from the downward trend in average increased 5.2%, ie 7.2 percentage points less than the benchmark index.

The calculation of the average development of the share purchase signals the trend is done on the basis of as many as 3747 cases. The uncertainty in the estimate, measured by standard deviation, is thus relatively low.

In addition, the average returns for buy signals 22 to 250 days after the signal, between 6.7 and 8.1 standard deviations above the benchmark index’s return.

So high values are considered clearly significant.

In both Norway and Sweden provides thus shares coming into an upward trend, a better return than the benchmark index, while shares that are entering a downward trend for lower returns than the benchmark index.

In addition, it emerges from Figure 5 and Figure 6 that in both countries increases excess return most of the first 3 to 4 months after the signal.

It is seen how the excess return for shares that have given buy signals from the rising trend, varies from year to year. Large variations will degrade the overall performance, but at the same time give indications in which situations the strategy seems particularly good, and when it does poorly.

Excess return 66 days after purchase signal for Norwegian shares, distributed on the year they gave the signal. The upper half of the figure shows, for Norwegian stocks, excess return 66 days after purchase signal from the rising trend in relation to the benchmark index on an annual basis since 1996. The blue bars show the excess return after 66 days. The red, horizontal line indicates the average excess return after 66 days for all signals. Lower part of the figure shows the benchmark index's development over the same period, stating the annual return. In parentheses below the figure indicated the number of buy signals per year.

The benchmark index has in the period 1996 – 2009 had both positive and negative returns on an annual basis. In positive years it is natural that there is more purchases signals than in negative years, but after almost 14 years, there has been a positive excess returns in 13 of them.

Nor is such that it is some years in particular contribute greatly to the excess return overall.

A strategy based on buying signals from the rising trend, seems thus robust against annual fluctuations.

Excess return for Swedish shares 66 days after purchase signal from the rising trend as a function of the year they gave the signal.

Shares with the purchase tag from the rising trend has given consistently good results over time, with significant excess returns relative to the benchmark index.

Based on historical exchange data for the shares on the Oslo Stock Exchange during the period 1996 – 2009 and OMX Stockholm during the period 2003 – 2009, have shares that are coming into increasing trends, done better than the benchmark index in the following year.

For buy signals, a relatively steady increase in excess return over the period after the signal date, but with a slightly higher rise pace the first 3-4 months.

Conversely provides sales signal negative returns and to a lesser return.

The trends identified by fully automatic systems, over a relatively long period of time. It provides a large number of signals, as a basis the data is considered good and the results statistically significant. The survey shows high excess returns over time, with 13 of 14 years of excess return for Norway, and seven of seven for Sweden.

The results are seldom sensitive to the stock exchange in the same period, rising or falling.

The trends identified by Investtech fully automatic systems, over a relatively long period of time.

It provides a large number of signals, as a basis the data is considered good and the results statistically significant.

The most well-functioning stock markets are affected by the same mechanisms as the Norwegian and Swedish.

Especially presumed underlying psychological drivers, with greed and fear that central factors, there is thus no reason to believe that the overall conclusions of this report will not be valid in other markets.

Here’s the original report with more information and examples.

(In Norwegian only).

About: Investtech.com

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Norway's Prime Minister Fears Social Unrest

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 28.12.09 at 00:47

Norway‘s Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg fears that the massive build-up in sovereign debt can trigger global social unrest in with unpredictable consequences.  He points out that many countries have built up huge deficits and huge debt, and that this is not sustainable and can not continue.

“The crisis is not over. 2010 is going to be an uncertain year”

Jens Stoltenberg

(Article in English, links to sources in Norwegian)

Prime Minister of Norway Stoltenberg is worried about the massive debt accumulation in many countries, and fears it might trigger increased turbulence around the world.

“The crisis is not over,” he says in a new year interview with the Norwegian news agency Norsk Telegrambyrå (NTB),

It is the massive debt accumulation in many countries, the prime minister fears could trigger increased turbulence around the world.

He points out that many countries have built up huge deficits and huge debt. “It is not sustainable and can not continue,” he says.

“When these countries begin to tighten in order to bring down the deficits, it can lead to a decline in the global economy.”

Mr. Stoltenberg underline the fact that Greece, who is struggling with its debt obligations,  is not alone. Most European governments borrowed large sums of money for one billion to offer rescue packages for their banks and firms during the financial crisis the worst months last winter. These  countries can find themself in a serious squeeze as loans has to be repaid, according to the Norwegian Prime Minister.

Even with so much uncertainty on the horizon, Mr. Stoltenberg do not belive it’s his responsibility to ask people to build up a buffer by curbing consumption.

“But it is important to be prepared because it may be difficult times ahead,” he adds.

“Moreover, Norway’s Central Bank has warned of higher interest rates. We currently have an abnormally low interest rates, and we can not expect that it will last.”

“2010 will be an uncertain year. How this will turn out in 2011, we must  come back to. I can not be more precise, or concrete, today. A lot of depends on how the global economy evolves.”

“A Dichotomy Of The Economy”

Mr. Stoltenberg is also worried about the Norwegian labor market that currently has an unemployment rate of only 3%.

“The crisis is not over. Norway has a small, open economy. Half of what we produce, we sell abroad. When it is up to 10 percent unemployment in our neighboring countries, there is no guarantee that we can still succeed in having 3 per cent,” says the Prime Minister.

“Although the acute downturn in production might be over with, we see that unemployment is growing in all of our neighbors.”

Mr. Stoltenberg says that the strong public stimulus to the economy, through road construction, extra maintenance and construction activities, will decline as the normal growth returns.  Both he and Finance Minister Sigbjørn Johnsen has announced that the extraordinary use of petroleum revenues in 2009 and 2010 will fall back to the level of the Norwegian fiscal rule of maximum 4%.

“Anyway, we are not talking about reducing public expenditure, but less growth. Much of public spending is bound up in social security payments, so it may be necessary with stricter priorities in other areas.”

He adds, however, that the vast majority of Norwegians next year will have a secure economy and a favorable trend in purchasing power.

“It is due to the fact that Norway will continue to have low unemployment compared with other countries, and overall a strong economy.”

“But I’m afraid of a dichotomy of the economy, where those who are addicted to selling goods to foreign countries, is vulnerable to that it is not going well internationally.”

“The strength of this government is that we can handle disagreement.”

“My experience is that when we sit down and spend some time, we find good solutions. Sometimes there will be a compromise, sometimes an entirely new way to handle a case.”

Here’s a Google-translated news report on the interview by the Norwegian web site, DN.no.

Update: 1920-similarities

Related:

2010 Analysis: ECB Increase Bank Loss estimates

2010 Analysis: Warns Against Social Unrest

Central Bank of Norway raise interest rate again

2010 Analysis: Collapse of Credit

Norway: Most Banks Fail In Stresstest

Reason To Worry

Norges Bank urges banks to reduce liquidity risks

Norway’s New Bubble

“The Norwegian syndrome

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Organizing Financial Rebellion

In Financial Markets, Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 27.12.09 at 19:51

A group of international economist and finacial expert has set up a project called “World Wide Initiativ to End Financial Fraud”. The project has one goal; to end the global central bank system. The group has one weapon; knowledge.

“At this current time, legislation is being proposed by various heads of states to consolidate the powers of Central Banks. Central Banks are using this crisis to forcefully and rapidly enact laws that will ensure that there is no opposition to their powers for decades to come. We founded this project because today, millions of people desire the truth about this crisis, yet there is a near vacuum in the mass media in reporting the truth.”

Endfinancialfraud.org

(Article in Norwegian, links to sources in English)

En gruppe økonomer og finansfolk har i løpet av året organisert et prosjekt de kaller “World Wide Initiativ To End Financial Fraud”. Prosjektet har ett mål; å avskaffe det globale sentralbanksystemet, Gruppen har ett våpen; kunnskap.


Ifølge nettsiden endfinancialfraud.org har 327 fagfolk og studenter innen økonomi og finans sluttet seg til prosjektet.

Prosjektets grunnlegger og administrative ledere er anonyme fordi de frykter represalier, men flere deltakere har i det siste gått ut i full offentlighet og erklært “krig” mot det de mener er vår tids farligste organiserte bande av okonomiske kriminelle – sentralbankene, i særdeleshet USAs Federal Reserve.

Grunnleggeren av World Wide Initiativ To End Financial Fraud skriver på organisasjonens hjemmeside :

“It is said that from dire, dark times, the greatest light can emerge. This is our opportunity and we must seize it. This is our chance to give voices to those that have remained voiceless throughout this crisis. Knowledge is power, especially in a world of misinformation, and by spreading knowledge, we can create a brighter future for every citizen in this world, rich and poor, young and old. If we don’t take action now, we’ll settle for nothing later.”

Kunnskap er makt

Organisajonen anslår at kun cirka 1 prosent av jordens befolkning forstår hvordan vårt finanssystem fungerer.

Alle som har melder seg til tjeneste forplikter seg til å spre kunnskap om bank- og sentralbanksystemet med hensikt å skape nok engasjement i den brede befolkningen til at sentralbanksystemet blir avskaffet.

– Akkurat nå foreslår statsoverhoder i flere land å innføre nye lover og regler for å konsolidere makten til sentralbankene. Sentralbankene bruker denne krisen hardt og effektivt til å få gjennomført lovendringer som sikrer at de ikke møter noen motstand mot sin virksomhet i lang tid fremover. Vi har startet dette prosjektet fordi det i dag er millioner av mennesker som ønsker sannheten om denne økonomiske krisen, men det er et tilnærmet vakuum i massemediene i forhold til å rapportere sannheten, skriver WWIFF i sitt manifest.

– Uten et nytt monetært system, er alle forsøk på fred, velstand, frihet og felles innsats for å løse den vanskelige situasjonen for hundrevis av millioner av flyktninger, og håndtere den truende sultekatastrofen, umulig, mener denne gruppen av økonomiske fagfolk.

– Ettersom sannheten alltid er sensurert fra toppen og ned, må dette unike initiativet utdanne verdens befolkning om de sanne røttene til finanskrisen, og det må bygges opp et momentum fra bunnen opp på en organisk måte. Vår inspirasjon i prosjektet er den øredøvende stillheten i massemediene om de virkelige opphavsmenn, og den virkelige historien bak den globale økonomiske krisen. Det faktum at de globale aksjemarkedene kan stige samtidig som verdens ledende økonomier er dødelig syke, er et symptom på at dette er svindel. Denne situasjonen vil ikke ende seg, med mindre verdens borgere tar affære nå.

En innsiders bekjennelse

En av dem som nå deltar i opprøret mot sentralbankene er den kjente finanseksperten og forfatteren J.S.Kim.

Kim har studert neurobiologi ved University of Pennsylvania og har to mastergrader fra University of Texas – en MBA og en i statsvitenskap.

Etter utdannelsen begynte han å jobbe for The Private Wealth Management division hos storbanken Wells Fargo. Senere i flere år hos Wall Street-firmaet Smith Barney.

I 2005 startet han sitt eget uavhengige analyse- og investerigsselskap, SmartKnowledge.

Han er i tillegg en av USAa mest leste finansbloggere, og en respektert bidragsyter/kommentator på nettsidene til Reuters, The New York Times, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times og The International Business Times.

Tidligere i år ga han ut boken “Confessions of a Wall Street Insider, a Zen approach to making a fortune from the coming global economic crisis.

I et intervju som ble publisert på finansbloggen Phil’s Favourites nylig forteller han blant annet om sin egen erfaring med bankvesenet.

“I was seeing an unsettling picture of industry excesses. I saw problems developing, for example, with mortgages – no document loans or liar loans. If the loan application didn’t support a mortgage, the loan might be denied at first, but then it was sent through a special process to convert it to a no document loan. Every bank did it. This was not specific to Wells Fargo. All the major U.S. banks had this “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, so they could say they didn’t know. They either should have known from the start that the mortgages couldn’t be paid back, or they didn’t care because they were making huge commissions up front. So they would make the loans and then slice and dice them up and quickly sell them off.”

Moralsk hasard

J.S. Kim hevder at bankene bevist lot gjeldsboblen utvikle seg fordi de visste at myndighetene ville komme dem til unnsetning når det gikk galt.

– Det har skjedd før – i 1920 – og jeg tror de visste det ville skje igjen. Prosessen med å ta kundenes penger og gjøre dem om til lån som kan gambles med (heads I win, tails taxpayer pays) har en historie som går tilbake til Den Store Depresjonen. Den har det beste fra begge verdener. Belønningen for risiko blir hos bankene toppledere, mens tap blir skjøvet over på skattebetalerne. Dette er et mønster som skjer om og om igjen – nasjoner blir robbet for rikdom til fordel for bankvesenets elite, sier han.

“People do not understand that central banks are formed solely to enrich its owners and that they cause great harm to all citizens of the nations in which they operate. Central banks are a scam a million times greater than Bernard Madoff‘s ponzi scheme.”

J.S.Kim avviser at det hele er en av mange konspirasjonsteorier.

– Jeg er ingen tilhenger av konspirasjonsteorier. Dette handler snarere om at systemet tillater bankfolk å gjøre hva de vil. Banknæringen og media bruker taktikken å kalle folk som mener at “boom and bust“-sykluser er tilsiktet for “konspiratører”. Den enkleste måten for bankfolk å beholde sin makt på er å kalle alle som eksponerer deres umoral og grådighet for gale konspirasjonstullinger.

– Obama er kjøpt og betalt

Her er flere kraftige utsagn fra J.S. Kim:

“President Obama owes the central bankers because they contributed to his campaign and they were responsible for his present position. Obama pulled his cabinet members from Wall Street. His cabinet consists of more power players from Wall Street than any administration in the past several decades.”

“Men like Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan are just the face of the U.S. Fed but ultimately not the real decision makers. The owners of the central banks influence global economic policy at meetings such as the G-8, G-20 and Bilderberg group meetings. They get together and make decisions that affect the entire global monetary system.”

“It’s impossible to have free markets and central banks at the same time. The free market will dictate what the interest rate should be, but central banks keep altering it and causing boom bust cycles. They created the housing bubble because interest rates were so low for too long. Whenever central banks artificially suppress interest rates to serve their purposes, a real estate or stock market bubble is inevitable.”

“Fundamental analysis in certain industries, such as the banking industry, is practically useless, since mark to market principles have been suspended and banks are allowed to hide bad assets that literally would expose many of them as bankrupt off-balance sheet.”

“If one truly wants to consider oneself “educated” in matters of our monetary system, one must dig for the truth. I guarantee what one discovers would be shocking to most people.”


Link to originale interview with J.S. Kim.

(Her er en Google-oversettelse til norsk)

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Happy New Year! (2009 Markets Summary)

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 26.12.09 at 21:23

We’re aproaching the end of 2009. Here’s some of the things I’ve been focusing on this year, and some intersting predictions for the next. In addition I republishe what probaly is the best investment advice of the decade. Happy new year!

“Acctually; we’re right back where we started in the athum of 2007. The difference is that the markets are now depending on goverment subsidies to function.”

The Econotwist

(Article and market commentaries in Norwegian, links to sources in English).

2009 går mot slutten. Her er noen av sakene vi har fokusert på i år, og noen av de mest interesante spådommene for året som kommer. I tillegg presenterer vi det som kanskje er tiårets beste investeringsråd. Godt nytt år!

2009 startet omtrent like dramatisk som 2008 sluttet.

Det vil si; etter det tradisjonelle nyttårsrallyet på bakgrunn av påtroppennde president Barack Obamas løfter om en enorm krisepakke på rundt 800 milliarder dollar begynte usikkerheten å spre seg igjen i midten av januar.

Da kom de første tegnene på at den økonomiske krisen hadde nådd realøkonomien.

Flere ikke-finansielle selskaper sender ut negative resultatvarsler, og arbeidsledigheten begynner å stige faretruende.

Krisen var i ferd med å skifte farge.

Rå resesjon underveis.

På randen av sammenbrudd

14.januar kommer den første bekreftelsen på at tilstanden i finanssektoren er enda verre enn de fleste har regnet med.

Deutche Bank melder om et tap på 45 milliarder kroner i siste kvartal. Britiske HSBC trenger ytterligere 200 millarder kroner for å overleve, og Barcalys sparker 2100 ansatte.

Europeiske bankaksjer stuper, og på Oslo Børs ramler DnB NOR over 10 prosent.

Deretter følger den ene bomben etter den andre. Frykten er tilbake – enda sterkere enn før.

Dramatisk på Wall Street.

Tilliten til bankvesenet er nå fullstendig pulverisert.

Analysesjef Stig Myrseth i Orion Securities skriver i sin morgenrapport 19,januar at “økonomien er ute av kontroll”

19.januar konstanterer Myrseth at det bare er et spørsmål om tid før hele det globale bankvesenet er konkurs.

Bankkollaps i aksjemarkedet.

– Nedturen tiltar i styrke.

Historisk aksjon

Den koordinerte internasjonale redningsoperasjonen som nå følger har verden aldri sett maken til.

Med Obama på plass i det hvite hus, krisemøte mellom G7-landene og krisepakker både her og der begynner mange å tro at det verste er over – i hvert fall for finansforetakene.

– Dette er det største økonomisk terningkast verden har sett, sa direktør Justin Urquhart Stewart hos Seven Investment Management.

– Gambler med verdensøkonomien.

13.februar når finanskrisen toppen.

Banken som i 2007 var rangert som verdens sikreste bank – Wells Fargo – melder om et tap som er langt større enn hva markedet hadde forventet og opplyser at den har et kapitalbehov som er tre ganger større enn man først hadde regnet med.

– Gruppepanikken råder.

Bankkrisen forverres.

Full alarm på Wall Street.

Øst-Europa: – Verre enn Asia-krisen.

19,februar faller aksjemarkedet til det laveste nivået på seks år.

23.februar er det amerikanske aksjemarkedet tilbake på nivået fra 1997.

Historisk sentralbanksjef

Det er rundt dette tidspuktet den amerikanske sentralbanken, med styreformann Ben Bernanke i spissen, legger planene for det som skal bli den heftigste oppturen på børsen siden 30-tallet.

I siste halvdel av mars når markedet bunnen.

Ikke bare det; aksjemarkedet gjør en total helomvending anført av de sønderknuste finansinstitusjonene.

Plutselig legger bankene frem sine beste kvartalstall noensinne.

Aksjene til AIG – verdens største forsikringsselskap – som gikk overende med et brak, og har kostet amerikanske skattebetalere cirka 200 milliarder dollar, stiger i perioden mars til september over 300 prosent.

Folk begynner å bli mistenksomme, investorene vet ikke helt hva som foregår, frustrasjon og raseri tiltar i styrke.

Krisen i ny fase.

Finansiell Hokus Pokus.

Bjørnefelle?

Vendepunktet?

Stjernesjokk.

Turbomarked.

Wall Streets illusjonister.

Vil granske Wall Street.

Skyhøyt stressnivå.

Den grønneste våren i manns minne

I mai begynner sentralbankenes intervensjon i markedet å få konsekvenser for valutakursene og flere uttykker bekymring for bivirkningene av den voldsomme finansielle stimulansen.

– Fare for dollarkrise.

Samtidig begynner forskjellige makroøkonomiske tall å vise en påfallende sterk bedring.

Et nytt økonomisk begrep dukker opp: “grønne skudd“.

For mange blir det hele bare mer og mer mystisk.

Tvilsomme tall.

Wall Street: Til å stole på?

Mot århundrets aksjefest?

10.august må USAs finansminister Timothy Geithner be Kongressen om lov til å øke underskuddet på statsbudsjettet mer enn det som er tillatt etter loven.

Ifølge Geithner er tilstanden “kritisk” for amerikansk økonomi.

Men aksjemarkedet fortsetter opp – stadig uten at noen helt forstår hvorfor.

Riktignok med noen svingninger innimellom som er minst like vanskelig å forklare.

Det synes som om markedet har mistet kontakten med den økonomiske virkeligheten.

Wall Street – Unplugged.

– For mange optimister?

Hvem er det egentlig som kjøper amerikanske verdipapirer? Med hvem sine penger? Hvorfor vil ikke FED opplyse hvilke banker som har fått låne penger? Eller hvor mye? Og hvem er egentlig “Big Head”?

Sirkus Wall Street.

Fra fest til farse

I løpet av høsten er utviklingen i finansmarkedene nærmest latterlig.

Verdens reservevaluta – amerikanske dollar – er nesten ingenting verdt.

Perifere valutaer som man knapt har hørt om er plutselig kurssatt 10 ganger mer enn hva de  burde være, fundamentalt sett.

Gullprisen går til nivåer man ikke kunne forestille seg for et par år siden og aksjekursene er tilbake på toppnivå med de automatiske handelssystemene som (nesten) eneste aktører.

Zombie-marked.

Ellevill fest.

Computere går amok.

Forresten; er det noen som husker en bank som het Lehman Brothers?

Lehman, hvem?

Galskapens grenseland.

Årets personer

Sentralbanksjef Ben Bernanke blir kåret til årets person av TIME Magazine, mens Financial Times utpeker Goldman Sachs-sjefen Lloyd Blankfein.

Begge har absolutt gjort seg bemerket i løpet av året,

“Jeg gjør Gud’s verk”.

Grilles om markedsmanipulasjon.

Vil vingeklippe FED.

Men egentlig er vi vel bare kommet oss tilbake der vi var like før krisen startet høsten 2007.

Skyhøy risiko.

Forskjellen er at markedet nå er avhengig av statlig subsidiering for å fungere.

Og det er heller ikke helt sikkert at resesjonen er over.

Delvis depresjon.

I tillegg har vi fått et nytt problem å hanskes med.

Advarer mot statsgjeld.

Det gjør 2010 til et enda mer spennende år.

Her er noen av analysene vi har presentert så langt:


European Central Bank

Antal E. Fekete – San Francisco School of Economics

David Rosenberg – Gluskin Sheff

Goldman Sachs

Sosiété Générale

UniCredit

Danske Bank

Deutsche Bank

Wealth Daily

Tiårets beste investeringsråd

Den kjente kommentatoren John “Bob” Farrell har formulert “The 10 rules of investing”.

Det er trolig noen av den beste rådene som noensinne er gitt.

For eksempel råd nummer ni: “Når alle ekspertene er enige, vil trolig det motsatte skje”

Her er alle Farrells 10 investeringsråd.

Lykke til i 2010!

“The 10 rules of investing”

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The Christmas Death Treath Scam of 2009

In Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 24.12.09 at 15:26

The so called “Hitman Scam” has been known to surface around christmas time every year since 2006. This year is no exception. Users of sosial networks have filed another stack of  complaints to the authorities, site operators ignore them and delete the users account instead. It’s become almost like a christmas tradition.

“The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) continues to receive thousands of reports concerning the hit man e-mail scheme. E-mail content has evolved since late 2006; however, the messages remain similar in nature, claiming the sender has been hired to kill the recipient.”

Federal Bureau of Investigation

If you receive a death threat email, you’re in good company. The so-called “Hitman email” scam has made a comeback. Around since at least 2006, the content of the death threat email has evolved some, but the general gist of it remainds the same: the Hitman email claims that someone wants you dead, that the Hitman email sender has been hired to kill you, and that if you come up with a sufficient amount of money, they will spare your life.

The so-called “Hitman email” scam has made a comeback this christmas.

Around since at least 2006, the content of the death threat email has evolved some, but the general gist of it remainds the same: the Hitman email claims that someone wants you dead, that the Hitman email sender has been hired to kill you, and that if you come up with a sufficient amount of money, they will spare your life.

According to the FBI, the Internet Crime Complaint Center continues to receive thousands of reports concerning the hit man e-mail scheme.

E-mail content has evolved since late 2006; however, the messages remain similar in nature, claiming the sender has been hired to kill the recipient.

Two new versions of the scheme began appearing in July 2008.

One instructed the recipient to contact a telephone number contained in the e-mail and the other claimed the recipient or a “loved one” was going to be kidnapped unless a ransom was paid. Recipients of the kidnapping threat were told to respond via e-mail within 48 hours. The sender was to provide the location of the wire transfer five minutes before the deadline and threatened bodily harm if the ransom was not received within 30 minutes of the time frame given. The recipients’ personally identifiable information (PII) was included in the e-mail to promote that appearance that the sender actually knew the recipient and their location.

In last years version a recipient of the emailed death threat responded to the scammer, telling the scammer to leave him alone, and the scammer wrote back and included personal details about the recipient, including his work address, his marital status, and his daughter’s name.

Version 09

This year several users of social networks have recivied the following message in their inbox:

“I felt very sorry and bad for you, that your life is going to end like this if you don’t comply, i was paid to eliminate you and I have to do it within 10 days.

Someone you call your friend wants you dead by all means, and the person have spent a lot of money on this, the person also came to us and told us that he wants you dead and he provided us your names, photograph and other necessary information we needed about you.

Meanwhile, I have sent my boys to track you down and they have carried out the necessary investigation needed for the operation, but I ordered them to stop for a while and not to strike immediately because I just felt something good and sympathetic about you. I decided to contact you first and know why somebody will want you dead by all means. Right now my men are monitoring you, their eyes are on you, and even the place you think is safer for you to hide might not be.

Now do you want to LIVE OR DIE? It is up to you. Get back to me now if you are ready to enter deal with me, I mean life trade, who knows, and I might just spear your life, $8,000 is all you need to spend. You will first of all pay $3,000 then I will send the tape of the person that want you dead to you and when the tape gets to you, you will pay the remaining $5,000. If you are not ready for my help, then I will have no choice but to carry on the assignment after all I have already being paid before now.

Warning: do not think of contacting the police or even tell anyone because I will extend it to any member of your family since you are aware that somebody want you dead, and the person knows some members of your family as well.

For your own good I will advise you not to go out once is 7pm until I make out time to see you and give you the tape of my discussion with the person who want you dead then you can use it to take any legal action. Good luck as I await your reply to this e-mail contact:( )

Mr.Jack Brown”

The easy way

While FBI and The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) seems to be unable to find and stop who ever is behind these scams, the site operators choose the easy way out; delete the users account.

One of this years victims notified the operators of http://www.mydailyflog.com about the incident, and got this message in response:

“Dear MyDailyFlog user, After reviewing your photos, we’ve found that some of them were not adhering to our Terms of Service, therefore it was deleted. Please note that if you break this rule, your account will be deleted forever. Kind Regards, The MyDailyFlog Team”

Problem solved!

Anyway – people who resive these treaths should not worry too much about it.

The scammer(s) are obviously not among the smartest people in the world:

People Doing Stupid Things: Spammer Makes Death Threat to Investigator


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A Black Market of Bank Information

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics on 23.12.09 at 16:55

As a result of cash-strapped governments intesified hunt on tax evaders a black market for private client data hes emerged, according to a reasearch note by Moody’s. The latest information has revealed bank employes aelling stolen data to foreign governments.

“In cases like these, consequences often go beyond the mere loss of the clients directly involved. In the most extreme cases, nervousness from depositors can lead to significant money outflows, which might force the banks’ to rethink their business model.”

Javier Rodrigues Martin

Foreign governments caution Switzerland that client data theft cases could increase, Moody’s says in a research note.  The most important challenge for banks is the reputational damage caused by data theft or fraud by their own employees, the analyst points out.

The latest client data theft affecting a Geneva-based private bank and involving French tax authorities shows how far cash-strapped foreign governments are ready to go to get tax evaders’ money back. The threat of further breaches of bank secrecy due to client data theft (tacitly encouraged by foreign governments) is likely to increase customer insecurity at private banks, which may ultimately lead to money outflow (both cash deposits and securities) and challenge these banks’ core funding base.

Since Switzerland agreed to relax its banking secrecy rules in March of this year, more than 12 double taxation treaties (DTT) have been drafted between the country and foreign governments, allowing it to be taken off the OECD grey list of un-cooperative countries in September 2009. The DTTs allow for bilateral cooperation in case of tax evasion or fraud from their citizens. However, so-called “fishing expeditions” are not allowed under such agreements and foreign governments need to provide the name and details of tax evaders as well as solid suspicions to Swiss authorities if they are to get assistance. Since this information is typically difficult to obtain, some governments have resorted to client data stolen by private banks’ former employees. This was the case with LGT Bank in Liechtenstein in 2002, where a former employee sold data to the German tax authorities, and more recently with HSBC Private Bank in Geneva.

While HSBC Private Bank has declared that data on fewer than 10 accounts between 2006 and 2007 were taken, the French government claims to be in possession of the names of about 3000 tax evaders relating to other Swiss banks. It also cautions that data theft cases could increase if Switzerland does not show more cooperation.
On one side, the lack of certainty about the names owned by the French authorities is meant to encourage clients to voluntarily disclose their assets to the tax authorities. However, the most important challenge for banks is the reputational damage caused by data theft or fraud by their own employees. In cases like these, consequences often go beyond the mere loss of the clients directly involved. In the most extreme cases, nervousness from depositors can lead to significant money outflows, which might force the banks’ to rethink their business model.

In order to protect against this increasing threat, private banks need to invest more in protecting client data. This burden occurs at a time when compliance costs are also increasing – due to the more complex legal environment- while the earning side is constrained by lower market valuations. In the longer-term, Switzerland will need to come up with further-reaching cooperation agreements if it wants to preserve client confidentiality while removing doubts about their tax-compliance.

Copy of the original research note.


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2010 Analysis: ECB Increase Bank Loss estimates

In Financial Markets, International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 22.12.09 at 00:32

In its December 2009 Financial Stability Review, the ECB raise the amount of expected writedowns to €553 billion from €488 billion in June 2009 (+13%).  Stress tests conducted by the Central Bank of Austria point to nonperforming loans of about 20% in Central and Eastern European countries. The ECB also notes that the surge in government indebtedness is a risk to financial stability and that some European banks are still reliant on emergency funding.

“Despite the recovery in financial markets and improved financial performance of euro area Large Complex Banking Groups, there are several grounds for caution in assessing the outlook for financial stability in the euro area.”

European Central Bank

In its December 2009 Financial Stability Review, the ECB raised the amount of expected writedowns to €553 billion from €488 billion in June 2009 (+13%). The main factors contributing to the higher estimate were deteriorating commercial real-estate performance and exposure to Central and Eastern Europe.

Stress tests conducted by the Central Bank of Austria point to nonperforming loans of about 20% in Central and Eastern European countries.

The ECB also notes that the surge in government indebtedness around the world is a risk to financial stability and that some European banks are still reliant on emergency funding.

“The extraordinary remedial actions taken by central banks and governments since late last year have been successful in restoring confidence in, and improving the resilience of, financial systems around the world. Financial system support measures have been addressing the funding challenges of key financial institutions and have bolstered their capital positions. These measures, together with sizeable macroeconomic policy stimuli, set in motion a mutually reinforcing process between financial system conditions and real economic performance, fostering improving business cycle prospects, as well as a fading of systemic risk.”

“An important reason for lowered systemic risk was an abatement of tail risk, thanks primarily to the downside protection by governments of financial institutions’ balance sheets. A recovery of risk appetite, underpinned by lowered systemic risk, contributed to the remarkable turnaround in financial markets since March 2009 and supported the trading income of large and complex banking groups (LCBGs). Many of these institutions also benefited from a considerable boost to net interest income on account of very steep yield curves. These better financial conditions strengthened the profitability of many LCBGs to such an extent that they were able to absorb considerable write-downs on securities and loans while still, on average, reporting material improvements in profitability over three consecutive quarters. Some were even able to return the capital they had received from governments, thus exiting from financial support.”

“Despite the recovery in financial markets and improved financial performance of euro area LCBGs, there are several grounds for caution in assessing the outlook for financial stability in the euro area.”

In particular, the main risks identified outside the euro area financial system include the possibility of:

  • Vulnerabilities being revealed in non-financial corporations’ balance sheets, because of high leverage, low profitability and tight financing conditions;
  • Greater-than-expected household sector credit losses if unemployment rises by more than expected;
  • The surge of government indebtedness raising concerns about the sustainability of the public finances, as well as the crowding out of private investment; and
  • An adverse feedback between the financial sector and public finances as a result of financial system support measures, fiscal stimuli and weak economic activity.

Within the euro area financial system, important risks include the possibility of:

  • Renewed financial strains and that the recent recovery of bank profitability will not prove durable;
  • Vulnerabilities of financial institutions associated with concentrations of lending exposures to commercial property markets and to central and eastern European countries being unearthed; and
  • A setback for the recent recovery of financial markets, if macroeconomic outcomes fail to live up to optimistic expectations.

“All in all, the challenges facing the euro area banking sector in the period ahead call for caution in avoiding timing errors in disengaging from public support. In particular, exit decisions by governments will need to carefully balance the risks of exiting too early against those of exiting too late. Exiting before the underlying strength of key financial institutions is sufficiently well established runs the risk of leaving some of them vulnerable to adverse disturbances, possibly even triggering renewed financial system stresses. Late exits, on the other hand, can entail the risk of distorting competition, creating moral hazard that comes with downside protection – including the possibility of excessive risk-taking – as well as exacerbating risks for public finances.”

HERE’S THE FULL REPORT (223 pages).

Summary.

Press Release.


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A non-agreement on nothing

In Health and Environment, International Econnomic Politics, Views, commentaries and opinions on 19.12.09 at 13:29

Friday evening, said U.S. President Barac Obama that it is achieved “meaningful and enestårende” climate agreement after negotiations on overtime in Copenhagen.  But the so-called agreement does not contain anything concrete. See for yourself.


U.S. President Barack Obama told the press late Friday night that it had achieved a “meaningful and unique agreement” between the world’s heads of state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions up to 2050.

In addition, it agreed to create a climate fund of 100 billion dollars to be used for mitigation in developing countries.

The agreement was presented in Copenhagen for talks on overtime between the U.S. and China.

– For the first time in history have all the major world economies come together and accepted its responsibility to act against the looming climate change, said Obama, according to international news agencies

Not binding

– The agreement is not legally binding, but what it does is to allow each country to show the world what they are doing, and it will be agreed from each country that we are in this together. We will see who meets, and who do not meet, the common commitments that have been put forth, “said Obama.

– We know that the measures we do not have sole NOK to get where we need to be by 2050, but that is why this should be the first step.

Obama thinks there are nødvending with a legally binding agreement, but that one could not sit to wait for everyone to agree on details.

X-and Y-agreement

The agreement is not legally binding and it is up to each country if they want to sign or not,

Those who write under is committed only to participate in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – individually or collectively – with 80 per cent towards 2050.

Each country can even fill out the percentage they will reduce their emissions by up to 2020 – X percent compared to 1990 and Y per cent compared to 2005.

According to the agreement, specific targets and commitments specified in a new agreement by 2016.

HERE IS A COPY OF THE ORIGINAL AGREEMENT-WORDS.


Politicians disappointed – environmentalists outraged

There are apparently no one – except Obama – who is satisfied with the agreement.

“Let’s be honest, this is not a perfect agreement. It does not remove the climate pressures, climate change threat to humanity”, said EU president, Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt told a news conference on Friday night.

“Our future is not for sale. I regret to inform you that Tuvalu can not accept this document,” said Ian Fry, who represents the small øystaten in the Pacific Ocean is likely to disappear in the ocean if sea levels rise as much as feared.

Fry calls the document a betrayal of biblical proportions.

“It looks like we have been offered 30 pieces of silver to betray our people and our future.”


Meaningless

Greepeace: “Copenhagen is the site of a crime today, and the culprit is the wild flight to the airport. There is neither the goal for emissions cuts or a legally binding agreement,” said John Sauve from the British division of Greenpeace.

Friends of Earth: “The agreement a miserable failure, and says that the rich countries thus have condemned millions of the world’s poorest people to starvation, suffering and loss of life as the climate changes ahead.” Det sier organisasjonens leder Nnimmo Bassey.

“Ansvaret for dette katastrofale resultatet ligger direkte hos de rike landene,” It says the organization’s leader Nnimmo Bassey.

“The responsibility for this disastrous outcome is directly in the rich countries,”

World Development Group: “The summit has been the only chaos from beginning to end, and finally ended in a shameful and monumental failure to judge one million around the world to indescribable suffering,” says Tim Jones in the WDG.

“To say that this agreement at any way is historical or meaningful is to fake the fact that it is empty of content. It is in reality meaningless. “


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